We are back to regular season basketball after an exciting night of the in-season NBA tournament. There are 11 big games on the slate, including four with double-digit spreads, putting those games at risk for blowouts. Brooklyn-Atlanta has the highest total on the night of 243.5 and we’ll close out the night with two late games in California. Let’s get to the best Underdog Fantasy NBA picks for today, starting with Jimmy Butler. Looking for more Underdog Fantasy advice? Check out our NBA Underdog Optimizer and the rest of our NBA articles.
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Underdog NBA Player Predictions | Dec. 6
Jimmy Butler H/L 10.5 Assists + Rebounds
The Miami Heat are 3-point road underdogs against the Raptors in Toronto. Jimmy Buttler is averaging 9.4 assists + rebounds on the season but just 8.0 in away games. However, Miami has not played since Dec. 2, and on at least three days’ rest, Butler is averaging 36.3 minutes and 13.7 assists + rebounds. Toronto ranks 21st and 22nd in opponent assists and rebounds allowed to forwards.
All good signs for Butler, but the big reason I’m on the over here is that Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are both out for the Heat. When they sit, butler has a 26.7 assist percentage and in his last 10 games without Bam, he’s averaging 11.5 assists + rebounds.
Best Underdog NBA Fantasy Play: Jimmy Butler Higher Than 10.5 Assists + Rebounds
Kyle Lowry H/L 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Like Butler, Kyle Lowry gets big bumps in usage, assist rate, and rebound rate without Bam Adebayo on the court. In his last 10 games without Bam, Lowry is averaging an even 24 points + assists + rebounds, including 22 the last time the Heat played in Toronto against his former team.
The minutes have been there for Lowry this season without Tyler Herro and with Gabe Vincent now in Los Angeles. Over the last five games Lowry has played 30.1 minutes which includes two games where he committed five fouls. With an increased opportunity and the familiarity of playing in Toronto, I’m going higher in this spot.
Best Underdog NBA Fantasy Play: Kyle Lowry Higher than 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Alperen Sengun H/L 11 Rebounds
Using OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool I landed on the under for Alperen Sengun’s rebound prop. The tool is showing a 5% EV with a 58% Win% on the under making this the highest rated NBA prop as of now. Let’s look a little deeper to see why the tool is thinking this.
Houston is a 2-point home underdog against the Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City allows the seventh fewest rebounds to opposing centers. Sengun is averaging 9.2 rebounds on the season and just 8.2 rebounds at home. Sengun has gone over 11 rebounds just four times this season. In a bad matchup with backing from the best betting tool in the industry, I’m going lower here.
Best Underdog NBA Fantasy Play: Alperen Sengun Lower Than 11 Rebounds
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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