Yesterday’s article went a solid 2-1, cashing overs for Jonathan Kuminga and Dejounte Murray but losing a Cade Cunningham under. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Coby White, Scottie Barnes and Nikola Jokic. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Nikola Jokic & More
Coby White Player Prop
The Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers will do battle with both teams on the wrong end of a back-to-back set. The Cavs come into this game as winners of two straight, which puts them second in the Eastern Conference. Chicago lost its last game and now ranks ninth. I expect Chicago’s struggles to continue, and we’re fading Coby White accordingly.
White’s shot profile doesn’t look good for this one. Since Zach LaVine went down, White has become an above-the-break sharpshooter and a shockingly inefficient interior scorer. Cleveland’s defense has allowed the sixth-fewest above the break 3’s over the last 15 games (8.5) and the fourth-fewest on the year (8.4). White shot 5-for-8 (63%) against them in their last meeting, but since that game, he has shot a combined 6-for-23 (26%) over three starts.
I’m fading White on the points market. His points prop is trading at a lofty 21.5 on FanDuel, and the under will cost you -125 (55.6%). White is averaging only 20.6 points per home game without LaVine and stayed under the 21.5 in 10 of 16 (62.5%). White will likely need to hit a boatload of 3’s to go over this number, but against Cleveland’s tough defense and slow pace, I don’t see that happening.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Coby White Under 21.5 Points -125 at FanDuel
Scottie Barnes Player Prop
Scottie Barnes and the Toronto Raptors will take on the Dallas Mavericks this evening. Barnes is averaging 7.2 assists per game without Pascal Siakam this year, reaching double-digit assists in both of his last games. I expect that streak to end tonight, as does OddsShopper Premium. Our model has an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip this season. For more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Scottie Barnes under today due to a crucial market inefficiency. The under 7.5 assists is priced at -115 (53.5%) at bet365, which is a better number than the true odds of -128 (56%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 7.5 for -144 (59%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 Assists -115 at bet365
Nikola Jokic Player Prop
The Denver Nuggets will host the Sacramento Kings tonight in a great spot to fade Nikola Jokic — at least as a scorer. The Kings aren’t a great defensive team, but they have allowed the third-fewest points per game to centers (20.3). They have softened lately, allowing only the 14th-fewest points to the position (22.8), but it’s worth noting that they also gave up the most assists per game to the position (6.2) over that sample.
Jokic is in a great spot as a passer, which should minimize his scoring opportunities. Jokic already tends to pass more and score less at home. His usage rate dips by 2.7% in Ball Arena, with his points average dipping to 25.3 but his assists average jumping to 9.7. Jokic’s points prop is trading at 26.5, a threshold he has crossed in only 13 of 27 home games, and I’m eager to fade him relative to that number.
We’ve seen Jokic scoring less over the last several games. Since the start of February, he is averaging only 25.4 points per game, surpassing the 26.5 five times but failing to do so in two games versus the Kings. Let’s fade him in the points column for this matchup.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 26.5 Points -115 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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