It’s been a chilly start to the week, but we’ve got a great angle to exploit in tonight’s Nuggets-Heat game, so I’m excited. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Klay Thompson. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +16u on the season. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jamal Murray & More
Jamal Murray Player Prop
The Miami Heat have shut down Jamal Murray in their last three meetings. The star guard has a high showing of 14 points against them since the 2020-21 campaign, and while that three-game simple does include a game he left early with an injury, he had scored only six points before exiting after 14 minutes of action. Not great, Bob!
Murray’s issues against the Heat stem more from a lack of volume, likely forced by Miami’s aggressive defensive style that focuses on top-scoring options, than anything else. He took 26 total shots over that three-game sample. For some perspective, he is averaging 16.7 shot attempts per game this year.
While Murray should bounce back with a strong showing versus the Heat at some point, his points prop is trading at 21.5, which is far too high for him in this matchup. While it’s below his per-game average since the All-Star Break (24.1), it’s above his per-game average on the season (21.2) and his average on the road (21.1).
I’m thrilled to be getting Murray’s under at a total this high. He has been a sharp fade against the Heat for several seasons and has cleared the 22-point threshold just once ever against Miami. It helps that the Heat have allowed the seventh-fewest points per game to point guards on the year (23.6), too.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jamal Murray Under 21.5 Points -110 at DraftKings
Klay Thompson Player Prop
Although the injury to Stephen Curry has led to a meaningful uptick in minutes for Klay Thompson, the veteran’s lofty point total of 21.5 is a squeeze too high. Thompson is averaging just 17.2 points per game this season and 14.8 without Curry, beating this number just once in a five-game sample (but scoring exactly 21 twice).
OddsShopper Premium also loves this under for Thompson today, and, from the beginning of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip. I won’t give too much away, but I recommend reading about the sportsbooks it found easiest to beat.
Our NBA betting tools want action on this Klay Thompson under today due to the glaring market inefficiency. The under 21.5 points will cost you -110 (52.4%) at BetMGM, which is a better number than the true odds of -124 (55.4%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 21.5 for -142 (58.8%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Klay Thompson Under 21.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Player Prop
We’re going for a correlation angle from our Jamal Murray NBA player prop pick. While Murray has often disappeared versus the Heat, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has stepped up.
Since joining the Nuggets, KCP has made three starts versus the Heat. He averaged 15.3 points through that span with at least two made 3-pointers in every matchup. Look for him to keep that streak alive tonight.
Since the 2019-20 campaign — when KCP was still a member of the Lakers — the veteran shooting guard has made 10 appearances against Miami, sinking at least two treys in seven tries.
KCP’s success versus the Heat makes sense, as Miami’s defensive approach often leaves role players open, especially in the corner. Miami has coughed up the fourth-most corner 3’s per game this year (4.1). KCP sunk four against them just a few weeks back, too.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 3-Pointers +100 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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