We’re on a 17-4 streak since last Monday in this column, with our absolute worth performances being the four-straight 2-1 cards we’ve had. I’m looking to go 3-0 again tonight, and I’ve got NBA player prop picks for LeBron James, James Harden and Kyle Kuzma in hopes of doing so. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can always check out my guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for James Harden & More
LeBron James Player Prop
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are a 7-point road favorite over the Detroit Pistons tonight. The Pistons are coming off a blowout loss to the Washington Wizards on Monday, and if they can’t keep things close against them, who can they keep things close against? Both teams are on the front end of a back-to-back set as well, so we could see some funky personnel decisions from both head coaches. That may have consequences for James’ minutes.
James is officially listed as questionable but has played through that designation multiple times this year. He’ll have to line up against the Oklahoma City Thunder tomorrow, a much tougher Western Conference opponent, as well. The books are taking action on his points, rebounds and assists (PRA) line at 39.5, but in the two blowout wins the Lakers have had on the front leg of back-to-back sets, James tallied 31 and 33 while playing 23 and 24 minutes, respectively.
If the Pistons can keep this competitive, there is a chance James sees the minutes necessary to go over this number. He averaged 1.36 PRA per minute in those blowout wins, and even a 30-minute workload would be enough to surpass this number if the Pistons let him cook like that. However, the Lakers would be wise not to keep James off the floor ahead of Thursday’s action, especially since that game will be Los Angeles’ fourth game in three days. Fade James in this spot at odds of -110 at BetMGM or DraftKings. If you’re new to BetMGM, make sure to check out our BetMGM bonus code for free OddsShopper Premium and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500!
NBA Player Prop Pick: LeBron James Under 39.5 PRA -110 at BetMGM
James Harden Player Prop
The Los Angeles Clippers get to visit the Sacramento Kings the night after their comeback win over the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers will then make the short trip to San Francisco for a game with the Warriors tomorrow. L.A. is slightly favored, and we could see head coach Tyronn Lue change up his rotations for the back-to-back set.
Tough scheduling aside, our NBA betting tools want action on this James Harden under today because of the pricing disparity. The +105 (48.8%) on ESPN Bet is worse than the true odds for this wager of -105 (51.2%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
NBA Player Prop Pick: James Harden Under 7.5 Assists +105 at ESPN Bet
Kyle Kuzma Player Prop
The Washington Wizards will visit the Orlando Magic tonight in a tough spot for Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole. The Magic excel at playing pesky defense and lead the NBA in turnovers forced per game (17.2). They rank second per game in turnovers forced from small forwards per game (3) and sixth per game in turnovers forced from power forwards (3.3), so we know they can cause problems for big wings.
Kuzma is the perfect fade in this spot because of his high-volume role in Washington. The wing ranks second in passes made per game (35.9), third in passes received (43.4) and second in total touches (59.9). He is averaging only 2.2 turnovers per game, which is much improved from the three he averaged last year and the 2.6 he averaged a year before that, but his minutes have also dropped from 35 and 33.4 to 30.7.
Since arriving in Washington before the 2021-22 campaign, Kuzma has lined up against the Magic five times. He is averaging exactly four turnovers per game through that sample, recording three or more on four occasions. Big wings Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are great at pestering their opponents, and Orlando ranks third in deflections per game (16.7) and sixth in chargers drawn (0.82).
You’ll find Kuzma trading at odds of -110 to record over 2.5 turnovers. Although he has been a cleaner player this year, he has yet to face a defense as annoying as Orlando’s. Look for him to cough the ball up multiple times on Wednesday.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Kuzma Over 2.5 Turnovers -110 at ESPN Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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