With the NCAA men’s basketball tournament nearing its end, bettors can turn more of their attention back to the NBA. Those hunting out tonight’s best NBA player prop picks, especially for Bucks-Nuggets and Pelicans-Clippers, should tail the predictions below. DraftKings has left too much value on the Aaron Gordon and C.J. McCollum player prop markets. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
Best Bucks-Nuggets NBA Player Prop Tonight | Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon O/U 0.5 3-Pointers
In a potential NBA Finals preview, the Denver Nuggets will square off against the Milwaukee Bucks on Saturday night. The Nuggets are a 2.5-point favorite as they have home-court advantage and are facing a Bucks team that just played last night. However, the Bucks easily dispatched the Utah Jazz yesterday, and superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo only needed to play 25 minutes. The Bucks have gone an impressive 11-4-2 against the spread with a rest disadvantage this year and still pose a serious threat.
However, the Bucks don’t have a great perimeter defense. Although they have allowed the seventh-fewest 3-pointers per game this year (11.9), they have given up the sixth-most above-the-break 3’s per game (9.5). Milwaukee has also given up the second-most above-the-break 3’s through the last seven games (12) and the 17th-most corner 3’s (3.3). Power forwards have accounted for plenty of that damage. The Bucks have allowed the third-most 3’s per game to the position this year (2.6) and the fifth-most through the last seven (3.1).
Denver’s power forward, Aaron Gordon, stands to benefit from this matchup. He may rank fifth among Denver’s starters in above-the-break 3’s made (0.7) and attempted (1.7) per game, but he should sink at least one triple tonight. Gordon is averaging 0.9 3-pointers per game against the Bucks throughout his career. That number jumps to 2.7 per game since he joined the Denver Nuggets. Gordon has sunk at least one triple in each of his starts against Milwaukee with Denver. He has also hit at least one triple in seven of his last eight starts against the team.
Best Bucks-Nuggets Player Prop: Aaron Gordon Over 0.5 3-Pointers (-140 for 0.7 Unit) at DraftKings
Best Pelicans-Clippers NBA Player Prop Tonight | C.J. McCollum
C.J. McCollum O/U 0.5 Steals
The Los Angeles Clippers struggle to possess the basketball. They have allowed the sixth-most steals per game this season (7.8) and the second-most to opposing point guards (2.2). They have also allowed the most steals per game to the position through the last 15 games (2.9). While things have gotten better with Russell Westbrook sliding into a less prominent role, he is still averaging 3.7 turnovers per game on an average workload of 30 minutes.
C.J. McCollum has been effective as a defender against the Clippers, especially lately. He is averaging 0.9 steals per game against them over his career, but that number jumps to 1.5 when looking at only their last eight meetings. He recorded at least one steal in each of those contests. McCollum is yet to face the Westbrook-led Clippers, but he is averaging 1.4 steals per game against Westbrook across their last eight meetings. McCollum has stolen the ball at least once in his last six starts against Westbrook.
The books have set the total for this player prop correctly (0.5) but should have slanted the juice on the over by a wider margin. We can still buy the over at -160 (61.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. The books might have set the number so low because McCollum has averaged only 0.6 steals per game since the All-Star Break, but the guard has bounced back lately with a steal in his last four contests. Let’s trust him here by taking this at DraftKings. Readers yet to register there can score $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Pelicans-Clippers Player Prop: C.J. McCollum Over 0.5 Steals (-160 for 0.8 Unit) at DraftKings
