The playoff race is heating up. With NBA teams jockeying for position — or for improved lottery odds — bettors can find plenty of value on the NBA player prop betting markets. The below plays for Knicks-Cavaliers and Pistons-Rockets stand out. FanDuel has left too much value on the Evan Mobley and Jaden Ivey player prop markets. Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder!
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Best Knicks-Cavaliers NBA Player Prop Tonight | Evan Mobley
Evan Mobley Double-Double
Value is popping in tonight’s New York Knicks–Cleveland Cavaliers matchup The books aren’t quite sure what to do with either team. Cleveland’s star center, Jarrett Allen, is doubtful with a groin injury. New York’s star power forward, Julius Randle, is out for a few weeks with a sprained left ankle. While we know what the Cavaliers look like without Allen, we don’t know much about the Randle-less Knicks because he hasn’t missed a game this season.
Evan Mobley stands to gain the most from both absences. Mobley has played 12 games without Allen this year and is averaging 17.1 points and 10.8 rebounds per contest. He recorded a double-double in six of those games, including an early December matchup with the Knicks. Randle secured nine rebounds in that game. As the fourth-ranked member of New York’s rotation in rebound rate (15.4%) — and the first-ranked non-center — his absence will be especially meaningful on the glass.
The sharp books know that Mobley has a better than 50% chance of recording a double-double tonight. That’s why Pinnacle has this line priced down at -114 (53.3%). But FanDuel Sportsbook is selling this line at +100 (50%), giving us a solid amount of edge. The Knicks faced the Cavaliers once last year without Randle, and, because both Mobley and Allen sat, backup center Moses Brown got a double-double. Expect a similar result for Mobley tonight.
Best Knicks-Cavaliers Player Prop: Evan Mobley Double-Double (+100 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel
Best Pistons-Rockets NBA Player Prop Tonight | Jaden Ivey
Jaden Ivey O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
With so many better games on the board, why do I recommend getting action on this one? That’s easy — there’s value. The Houston Rockets have the worst perimeter defense on the season and allow the most 3-pointers per game (14.7) on the second-highest conversion rate (37.8%). Almost all of that damage has come from above the break. The Rockets have allowed the most above-the-break 3’s per game this season (11.3) on the highest conversion rate (37.6%).
Guards have proven especially fatal to the Rockets. Detroit’s current rotation features Killian Hayes at the one and Jaden Ivey at the two. The Rockets have allowed the most 3’s per game to point guards (3.8) and to shooting guards (4) this year. But because Hayes isn’t a high-volume shooter, Ivey stands to benefit the most. Ivey leads the Pistons in above-the-break 3’s made (2) and attempted (5.2) per game since the All-Star Break.
The sharp books are handling this NBA player prop a bit better than the square ones. Pinnacle has the over priced at +115 (46.5%), but we can find the over available at +124 (44.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. That isn’t a world-beating amount of edge, but those numbers may underestimate how much the threadbare Pistons may rely on Ivey tonight. Since his return from a three-game absence in mid-March, Ivey has averaged 2.7 3’s per game on 42.1% shooting. Readers yet to register at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Pistons-Rockets Player Prop: Jaden Ivey Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+124 for 0.75 Unit) at FanDuel
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