Against all odds, the Boston Celtics bounced back from a disastrous Game 3 to win Game 4. The Eastern Conference Finals now return to TD Garden. If you’re searching for solid NBA player prop bets, consider targeting Jaylen Brown and Gabe Vincent. Want more Celtics-Heat player props for Game 5? Check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays, including our Parlay Builder! You can also get access to my full NBA betting cards, in addition to any live bets, via OddsShopper Insider Access.
Heat-Celtics Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Jaylen Brown
Jaylen Brown O/U 22.5 Points
Alright, folks. Jaylen Brown has had a terrible series, but with Boston’s pivotal Game 4 win, the struggles of the opening three games are in the rear-view mirror. This doesn’t mean the Celtics will be the first team to ever come back from a three-game deficit, but it does mean they should put up more of a fight with the series back in Boston. Brown is averaging only 16.8 points per game this series and is yet to beat this number, but that’s why we’re getting a discount on the over.
Just about every metric suggests Brown should benefit from positive regression at some point. He came into this series averaging 24.6 points per game in the playoffs and averaged 26.6 in the regular season. He averaged 17.8 field goal attempts per playoff game before this series and has averaged 19.3 since it began. Brown averaged 30.3 points per game against the Miami Heat in the regular season as well. The return to Boston should help Brown as well, as he averaged 26.7 points per game here in the regular season and 25.6 in the postseason before this series started.
Let’s ride with Brown to go over a discounted points prop. Pinnacle, a sharp book, wasn’t as quick as the public books to discount the over. You can find the over priced at -130 there, so the -120 at FanDuel Sportsbook looks quite appealing. Let’s lock in the over for a full-unit wager before the books correct for their over-adjustment. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Heat-Celtics Player Prop: Jaylen Brown Under 22.5 Points -120 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Heat-Celtics Game 5 NBA Player Prop | Gabe Vincent
Gabe Vincent O/U 12.5 Points
Few players have exceeded expectations more than Gabe Vincent in this series. Vincent is averaging 17.5 points per game and has soared over this number in three of his four starts. However, his production hasn’t been all that sustainable — Vincent is shooting an impressive 57.9% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc. He shot 40.2% from the field and 33.4% from beyond the arc in the regular season. Coming into this series, he was shooting 36.8% from the field and 33.8% from beyond the arc in the playoffs.
Vincent should cool down in Game 5. He already cooled down somewhat in Game 4 by shooting only 5-for-10 from the floor and 1-for-4 from deep, but he got to the charity stripe for a season-high seven free throws and made six. Although he has impressed on the road in the playoffs, Vincent averaged only 8.8 points per game away from Miami in the regular season, 1.2 less than what he averaged at home. His shooting splits also dipped from 41-35-90 to 40-32-83. Vincent has stayed under this number in two of his last three road playoff games.
Punch in the under before the books adjust. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced at -107, but we can find this bet priced at only -105 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Vincent just played a series-low 28 minutes in Game 4 as Boston’s adjustments rendered him a negative asset; he scored a box plus-minus of -16, worse than all of Miami’s other role players. If you’re yet to sign up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Heat-Celtics Player Prop: Gabe Vincent Under 12.5 Points -105 for 1 Unit at DraftKings