There is just one game on the docket, and it’s a closeout opportunity for the road team. Sounds exciting — let’s make our move on a bet365 NBA parlay bet for Nuggets-Timberwolves. Here are the best NBA same-game parlay picks, targeting Nikola Jokic and his No. 1 rival with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: Bet365 Parlay With Nikola Jokic & More
Leg #1: Anthony Edwards Under 2.5 3-Pointers
Once again, we’re following Loughy ‘s advice and leaning on unders here. That’s where the value is pretty much every day, and Nuggets-Timberwolves is no exception. We’re also going with all 3-pointer bets, one that offers some value on the odds and one that gets our expected win rate a boost, according to the Parlay Builder.
First up, we’re doing the uncomfortable and fading the hot shooting of Anthony Edwards. Prior to his 1-for-5 in Game 5, Edwards had made at least three 3’s in four of the last five, and perhaps more importantly, he has taken at least seven in five of nine games this postseason. Three of those came in this series.
But there definitely seems to be some fatigue on Edwards’ legs given the amount of work Minnesota is putting on his shoulders. He has played 44-plus minutes in two straight, and he also isn’t getting to the line at an exorbitant rate — no more than eight free throws yet in this series.
Plus, while Edwards has been making a lot of shots at times, the T-Wolves are at their best when he’s attacking, and Denver has sometimes been completely unable to slow him. If his energy holds up, that is going to be the recipe for success with Minnesota’s back against the wall.
Or maybe his fatigue causes him to settle for jumpers, which also does not behoove a 3-point over. Either way, OddsShopper gives Edwards a 51% chance of falling short of 3.5 3’s.
Individually, this bet is 4.0% +EV in the OddsShopper model, and it’s is pushing the value for this parlay thanks to +105 odds on bet365.
Leg #2: Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 3-Pointers
Now we get to the shorter odds that are both individually +EV and driving the parlay win rate up above 30%.
This series has been nothing short of a Jokic showcase — cooking everyone Minnesota throws at him, his usual slick passes and, in a twist (to some), good defensive stats.
That said, Jokic as a 3-pointer shooter is basically a “I’ll prove I can, but I’d rather not” kind of situation. He’s a career 35% 3-point shooter, was 35.9% this regular season and is 40% in his postseason career, but in these playoffs he is just 30.8% on 3.9 attempts per game. That’s amounting to 1.2 makes a night, and he has made multiple 3’s in only four of 10 games this postseason.
Now, two of those came in this series, including on Tuesday, but based on averages, Jokic needs to take more than four 3’s a game to make two. He has done that in four games as well.
OddsShopper likes Jokic to do what works best as the Nuggets look to close out Minnesota, and that is look for the best shot for himself and others. Rarely does he decide that to be a 3-point attempt unless it’s late in the shot clock. As such, his under is getting a 65% expected win rate, making it 0.5% +EV individually (thanks to -180 odds) but gets the whole parlay to a 32% win expectancy and 4.25% +EV.
NBA Parlay Today: +218 at bet365
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