Last night didn’t go the way we planned, as we hit on just one of three picks. It seemed like every Magic player smashed except for Paolo Banchero. We got the Tobias Harris prop at 16.5, and then Joel Embiid was ruled out. The prop went up to 21.5, and Harris managed to take just 10 shots and finished with 12 points. Tonight’s slate is a nine-gamer that includes a 247.5 total in San Antonio for Hawks-Spurs. There are six key players listed questionable for tonight, while Anthony Edwards is doubtful, so let’s keep an eye on the news and see if we can find some PrizePicks NBA value with Minnesota.
Picking the right projections can be a tough task, but with the help of OddsShopper’s NBA PrizePicks Optimizer and some diligent research, we have you covered. Let’s dive into the best PrizePicks NBA picks and player projections for Thursday, starting with Karl-Anthony Towns.
PrizePicks NBA Player Predictions | Nov. 30
Karl-Anthony Towns M/L 13 First Half Points
Karl-Anthony Towns is in a good spot against a terrible Utah defense. The Timberwolves are favored by 10 points, with the Jazz playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, giving this game major blowout risk. Towns averages 11.5 first half points on the season in 17.1 minutes. Anthony Edwards is doubtful for tonight, and with him off the court, Towns is averaging 43.3 points per 100 possessions. With Edwards, he’s only at 31.3 — a big difference.
The Jazz allow 61.2 points per game in the first half, which rank 27th, while their defensive rating is 26th.
Dejounte Murray M/L 5.5 Assists
The Hawks are favored by 7 points against the spurs, while this game has the highest total on the night of 247.5. I’m enticed by Dejounte Murray‘s fantasy score prop, but his numbers indicate that his scoring takes a 5-point hit on the road. His assists numbers are actually better on the road, averaging 5.6 per game.
Both the Hawks and Spurs rank bottom 5 in defensive rating and top 5 in pace. The Spurs allow 29.2 assists per game, which rank 29th in the NBA. Murray will get six assists tonight in a nice homecoming game.
Donovan Mitchell M/L 31.5 Points + Assists
Donovan Mitchell is averaging 33.2 points + assists this season and 33.7 at home. The Cavaliers are 11-point home favorites against the Trail Blazers. Portland is third in the NBA in turnovers on the road, so there will likely be some easy transition baskets for Mitchell tonight.
These teams played two weeks ago, and Mitchell had 38 points + assists in Portland. Cleveland won that game by 14 points without Darius Garland. Garland is scheduled to play tonight, but it does not impact Mitchell’s usage rate that much. With Garland Mitchell is at 32.5% and only gets a 2% bump without him. He should get enough volume and get more than 31.5 tonight.
Two-pick power plays and five-pick flex plays have the most expected value. If you’re looking for more picks, check out our PrizePicks Optimizer.