Both the Boston Celtics and Chicago Bulls are off to solid starts. The Celtics sit at 4-3 after an overtime loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, while the Bulls sit at 5-4 after beating the Hornets and Nets. With the Celtics listed as heavy home favorites in the NBA, bettors should tail these Bulls-Celtics predictions and picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for more plays.
Bulls-Celtics Prediction & Odds
Bulls Playing Well But Leaning on Mid-Range Shots
The Bulls have played reasonably efficient basketball despite dealing with multiple injuries early in the season. They rank ninth in net rating (+2.8) behind their sixth-ranked defense (107.5). Their offense ranks only 22nd (110.2) because of questionable shooting. They rank only 26th in effective field-goal percentage (51.2%) as a team.
Chicago's poor shooting falls on their emphasis on mid-range shots and poor performance in the restricted area. The Bulls rank second in mid-range shots attempted per game (17.3) and have taken far more than the league average (10.7). While they also rank seventh in mid-range shooting percentage (46.8%), analytically flawed shot selection is holding them back. The Bulls also rank 10th in shots taken within the restricted area per game (29.3) but rank dead last in field goal percentage on that part of the court (55.3%).
The Bulls have defended the paint well but are struggling on the perimeter. The Bulls rank eighth in points in the paint allowed per game (45.8) but 24th in 3-pointers allowed per game (13.4). They have fared especially poorly against shots from the corner, as they rank 28th in shooting percentage allowed from that part of the floor (51.4%). They have allowed the most made 3’s per game to power forwards (3.4) and the third-most to small forwards (3.6).
Celtics Relying on 3-Point Shooting
Like the Bulls, the Celtics have looked reasonably efficient. Boston ranks right behind Chicago in net rating (+1.9), largely because of the club's eighth-ranked offense (114.7). They rank fifth in effective field-goal percentage (55.8%). Last year's NBA-best defense has taken a bit of a step back as Boston only ranks 18th in defensive efficiency (112.8). That said, getting Robert Williams III back would help them get back on track.
Boston's offense has leaned on 3-point shooting this year. They lead the NBA in 3-pointers made per game (15.4) despite playing at the NBA's seventh-slowest pace. Boston has been especially good from the corner -- the team leads the NBA in corner 3’s made per game (5) and ranks seventh in field-goal percentage from the corner (44.6%). They haven't fared as well from the top of the key but have still converted an above-average percentage of their shots from that part of the floor (35.8%).
The Celtics have done a good job defending the rim and forcing their opponents to take questionable shots. They rank second in makes allowed per game in the restricted area (14). Opposing teams have responded to Boston's solid interior defense by taking shots from the non-restricted area and from mid-range. The Celtics have surrendered the most mid-range makes per game (7.4) and the second-most makes from the non-restricted area per game (9.1).
Final Bulls-Celtics Prediction & Pick
With the Bulls struggling to prevent corner 3’s and the Celtics struggling to prevent mid-range makes, backing Al Horford and DeMar DeRozan feels sharp here.
Horford leads the Celtics in corner 3’s attempted per game (2.7) and has converted 43.8% of his looks. He went 2-for-6 against the Bulls earlier this season and has made at least a pair of triples in four of his six games. With the Celtics likely planning to rest him for the second leg of their back-to-back set tomorrow, look for Horford to get the run necessary to get plenty of corner triples. Bettors should wager enough to profit a full unit on the standard market and place a half unit on a teased-up line.
On the other side of the floor, mid-range specialist DeMar DeRozan should feast against Boston's struggling mid-range defense. DeRozan leads the Bulls in shots attempted from mid-range (9.4) and from the non-restricted area (3). He scored 25 points against the Celtics earlier this year but has a prop total of just 23.5 for this game. Bettors should wager enough to profit a full unit on his prop market.
Bulls-Celtics Prediction: Al Horford Over 1.5 Made 3’s (-104 for 1.04 Units) at FanDuel
Al Horford Over 2.5 Made 3’s (+320 for 0.5 Units) at FanDuel
DeMar DeRozan Over 23.5 Points (-113 for 1.13 Units) at FanDuel
