The Miami Heat head to Boston to battle the first place Celtics on a busy 13-game NBA slate. This article review the best Heat-Celtics bets by showcasing odds and making other predictions and picks.
The Celtics are rolling. At 17-4, they have the best record in the NBA and are 9-1 in their last 10. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both in the top 15 in scoring, and the production of Boston’s bench has been pleasantly surprising. The Heat don’t look like the team that went to seven games with Boston in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. Riddled by injuries, Miami stands at 10-11 and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. Miami will be without Jimmy Butler, who has missed the last five games, and there is a laundry list of others on the injury report.
The Celtics are favored by 9 points, and the game total is set at 224. Let’s break down the best Heat-Celtics predictions for Wednesday.
NBA Odds: Heat-Celtics Odds
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Tatum Continues MVP Run
At just 24, Jayson Tatum is averaging 36.3 minutes, 30.8 points, 3.3 3’s, and 4.6 assists per game and is shooting 48.1%, all career bests. Through 20 games, he already has eight double-doubles and is on pace to smash the 22 he had last season. He ranks fifth in scoring and seventh in usage. Jaylen Brown missed the last game and is questionable to play tonight. When Brown sits, Tatum’s usage gets a bump. With no Jimmy Butler on the floor for Miami, Tatum has a clear path to dominate the ball and score.
The Celtics rank first in offensive rating but just 14th in defensive rating. At 59.2%, they have the best effective field goal percentage, and their 13.3 turnovers per game are third fewest. They have six players averaging double figures in points and eight players shooting better than 40% from 3. This team is balanced, dangerous and leads the league in scoring over the last five games (124.8 per game).
Miami’s defense ranked fourth last season and surprisingly has not fallen much. In the five games without Butler, Miami’s defensive rating sits at 106.7, fifth best. The Celtics and the Heat both are in the bottom half of the league in pace, with Miami slowing it down a bit more to 26th. Even without Butler, Miami could slow down the Celtics offense a bit.
Bam Bam & Co.
The Heat will go as far as Bam Adebayo takes them tonight. When Butler sits, Adebayo gets a huge usage bump. In the last five games, his usage rate has jumped to 28.8, best on the team. Over that span, he’s averaging 24.6 points and 10.1 rebounds per game and shooting 53% from the field. In the Heat’s 104-111 loss to Boston a few weeks ago, Adebayo had 19 points, eight rebounds and five assists.
Adebayo is not alone, however. Kyle Lowry is still ticking at age 36, averaging 14.6 points and 6.2 assists. Tyler Herro‘s scoring numbers are down a bit from last season, but he’s still averaging 18.1 points per game. Other guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and rookie Nikola Jovic have filled in nicely, but Caleb Martin has burst onto the scene. Martin is averaging career highs across the board, including 32.8 minutes per game. He played just 23 minutes per game last season. In Butler’s absence, Martin is averaging 17.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.
Miami is 3-2 in this stretch without Butler but it has a -2.2-point differential. Its offensive rating ranks 28th in that time and 26th on the season. Strus, Martin and Duncan Robinson are all expected to play with their questionable tags, but if Herro sits, this offense could struggle in Boston.
Final Heat-Celtics Prediction & Pick
When these two played in Miami in October the Celtics won 111-104. Boston covered the spread by 2 points, and the game went under the total by 5.5. Tatum had 29 that game with Brown in the lineup and Butler playing defense.
The Heat are 7-13-1 against the spread and are 2-7 on the road. Boston is 13-8-0 against the spread and 10-1 at home. These teams have a 23-18-1 over/under record combined.
Final Heat-Celtics Bets: Under 224 (-107, PointsBet)
Boston Moneyline (-375, BetMGM)
Jayson Tatum Over 29.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)
