We definitely wanted a closer game — and a parlay win — but hey, at least basketball is back after a decades-long absence. It’s time to run it back for Mavericks-Celtics Game 2 with another NBA parlay. As always, these same-game parlays are all about building long-term profitability, not just results here and now. Now let’s create a BetMGM NBA same-game parlay bet for Mavericks-Celtics with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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Mavericks-Celtics Parlay: BetMGM SGP With Derrick White
Leg #1: Al Horford Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Unsurprisingly, Kristaps Porzingis came off the bench in Game 1 for his first game in over a month and only played 21 minutes. What was surprising, however, is Porzingis scoring 20 points on 8-for-13 shooting and being a +13 in his limited action. Horford, meanwhile, got 30 minutes and was solid, putting up 20 points + rebounds + assists.
But that was clearly a feel-out game for Boston’s frontcourt, and the minutes for those two should probably even out — if not swing over to Porzingis.
Yes, the two can share court time since both have 3-point range and defensive value, but it likely won’t be for very long. Porzingis could still come off the bench and supplant a good chunk of Horford’s minutes; anything between 23 and 27 for both of them seems to be in play.
Horford is averaging 19.2 PRA per game in 15 postseason games. However, that is coming in over 30 minutes per game. If he keeps a similar PRA per-minute rate and plays only 25 to 27 minutes, he is looking at 15.8 to 17.1 PRA, below his 17.5 line.
Of course, Porzingis’ health has been and will remain a question, so the expected win rate on Horford under 17.5 PRA is only 55% despite the projections favoring it pretty strongly. Still, with odds of -115 on BetMGM that are below the -121 True Odds, this is a solid 2.2% positive bet in terms of expected value.
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Leg #2: Derrick White Under 4.5 Assists
This bet is all about market value because the trends are pretty strongly favoring an over here for White. But we’re sounding like a broken record here: It’s important to remember if you are new to +EV betting that your edge shows how you’ll make money over the long term — but it may be a long term. Our backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.
That includes taking a bet with a sub-50% win rate on a guy who has recorded five-plus assists in five of his last six games. White also played 35 minutes in Game 1 despite Boston controlling from the end of the first quarter on, so his minutes are not in question.
But …
White’s playoff average is actually pretty close despite these recent totals — 4.6 assists per game and eight unders on 4.5 in 15 tries. So the under’s win rate has actually been over 50% for White’s last 15.
Again, the important part here is the market. White under 4.5 assists should have odds of +103 according to OddsShopper’s NBA model, but BetMGM has it +110. That is a 3.6% edge, and the 49% expected win rate is not bad given the plus money.
On top of that, this bet pushes our odds for this Mavericks-Celtics parlay to +292, and the 26% expected win rate is workable. All together, these two bets give us a 5.73% expected value edge on BetMGM.
Mavericks-Celtics Parlay Today: +292 at BetMGM
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