The 2023 NBA Draft has arrived. Although the No. 1 overall selection is all but decided, as the San Antonio Spurs will almost certainly take Victor Wembanyama, the No. 2 overall selection is much less clear. However, the NBA draft odds have now settled on a favorite to go to the Charlotte Hornets at No. 2: Scoot Henderson. Let’s break down the NBA Draft odds and line movement as draft time approaches for Scoot Henderson–Brandon Miller.
NBA Draft Odds: Market Picking Sides For Scoot Henderson–Brandon Miller at No. 2 Overall
Scoot Henderson has become the runaway favorite to go at No. 2. He was trading at -200 (66.7%) to go second as recently as yesterday, but you’ll now have to pony up twice that or more to get action on him. Henderson’s odds to go at No. 2 overall are trading at -360 (78.2%) at FanDuel and DraftKings and -370 (78.7%) at BetMGM.
Henderson is the obvious pick at No. 2, so it’s not surprising the odds have begun to reflect this reality. It may have taken a report from NBA insiders that Charlotte’s front office was heavily leaning toward taking Henderson for the definitive movement to occur, but NBA talent evaluators have favored Henderson for quite some time. Even expert mock drafts that list Miller before Henderson acknowledge the talent differential.
However, some experts worry about fit. Henderson, a 6-foot-2 guard, likely lacks the size to play anywhere but the one. The Hornets already have an excellent point guard in 6-foot-7 LaMelo Ball. With 6-foot-1 guard Terry Rozier also on the roster, some argue that the Hornets would be wise not to add another small guard to their backcourt. To them, 6-foot-8 wing Brandon Miller fills a clear need for the Hornets.
But Charlotte shouldn’t draft for need or fit. The Hornets went an atrocious 27-55 last season on their way to 14th in the Eastern Conference. They finished 10th in the conference — good for a play-in tournament bid — in both the 2021-22 and 2020-21 seasons. That just isn’t going to cut it. It would be profoundly unwise for the Hornets to take Miller simply because of their current roster construction.
Further, those who argue the Hornets shouldn’t pair Ball with Henderson are ignoring a fairly obvious point: Ball has the size to play the two or the three. He spent 30% of his minutes at the two during his rookie campaign and 25% of his minutes at the two last season.
Ball’s size has previously allowed the Hornets to leave three point guards on the floor effectively as well. Charlotte played Ball alongside Rozier and Devonte’ Graham. The result was actually quite efficient — the trio owned a net point differential of +25.4. Lineups with three point guards can work when at least one has a size advantage (see also: the 2019-20 Oklahoma City Thunder; the 2018-19 Los Angeles Clippers).
