The short evening slate concludes with Mariners-Yankees, set to throw out first pitch at 7:05 ET. Right now a lot of the value in this game comes from the home run market, so hop on those if you’re looking for a high-risk/high-reward play, but there is one other spot getting some solid +EV in the OddsShopper model. Let’s dig into the best Mariners-Yankees bet for the nightcap and break down some MLB predictions.
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Best MLB Mariners-Yankees Bet & Prediction
MLB Free Picks: Mariners-Yankees Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners: -115 | New York Yankees: -105
Over 7.5: -105 | Under 7.5: -115
Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees have a powerful lineup from top to bottom. There are not a many high batting averages in there, but New York’s hard-hit and fly ball rates are among MLB’s best and it strikes out at at a league-average clip. That is going to come in handy against young Mariners starter Bryan Woo, as the only thing Woo is doing well right now is striking out hitters.
Woo’s sky-high 7.30 ERA is still feeling the effects of his six-run debut a couple weeks back, and he has since struck out 16 combined across two starts. That said, all three of his home runs allowed came in those two outings, and two came against the White Sox, a team that ranks near the bottom of MLB in a number of power metrics. Against a Yankees lineup that does not have a lot of places for respite in terms of power potential, Woo is going to have to be more careful with how he hammers the strike zone. Right now he is hitting the zone 70% of the time — league average is around the low 60s.
The Yankees do not walk a lot, so they will be ready to hack away at Woo pitches in the zone, which in turn could lead to Wood getting hit hard early on. So while he has the strikeout stuff to put up numbers if he lasts long into the game, this seems like a spot where Woo gives up some runs and exits before the sixth inning.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Woo below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for under 5.5 Woo strikeouts at -106, so this over is smoking the market at +105. He has a 51% chance of going under 5.5, and that is leading to a strong 6% EV on OddsShopper and a recommended bet size of $17.50. This gives Woo’s under the top value spot for Mariners-Yankees in the last game of the Thursday slate — lock this bet in now on DraftKings and get $200 in bonus bets if you wager at least $5!
Best Mariners-Yankees MLB Bet: Bryan Woo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105, DraftKings)
