With a busy NBA slate on tap this Tuesday, where are the best spots to make your NBA picks? The evening’s TNT games, Boston Celtics–Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns–Denver Nuggets, feature a laundry list of injuries and aren’t all that appealing to me. Sit back, relax and enjoy the analysis as we dive into today’s NBA odds, injuries and trends in hopes of finding one or two NBA picks. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Odds, Injuries, Trends & Picks Today
NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends Today: Tuesday, March 5 | Odds via BetMGM
This article was originally written at 3 a.m. ET; line movement notes are from 11:30 a.m. ET.
Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends
ORL: -375 | CHA: +300
ORL -8.5: -110 | CHA +8.5: -110
Over 207.5: -110 | Under 207.5: -110
Game Time: 7 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Orlando Magic draw a road date with the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday. The Magic will stay on the road for a game against the Washington Wizards on Wednesday but the Hornets get a night off. Markelle Fultz (questionable) is the only noteworthy injury for Orlando. Charlotte remains without LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams, but now Seth Curry (out), Cody Martin (out) and Nick Richards (questionable) are on the injury report.
Orlando has been the NBA’s most profitable team against the spread this year. The Magic have gone an impressive 40-21 ATS, covering at an absurd 65.6% clip. They’re a not-as-great 19-13 ATS on the road, but they’re also 5-2 ATS as a road favorite. It’s always tough to cover nine points on the road, and while Charlotte sits at 13-17 ATS at home, the Hornets improve to 13-13 ATS as a home dog. Still, their injury-riddled lineup is hard to trust.
The odds for this one haven’t budged off the opening numbers.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends
BOS: -350 | CLE: +260
BOS -7.5: -115 | CLE +7.5: -105
Over 215.5: -115 | Under 215.5: -105
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Boston Celtics on TNT this Tuesday before visiting the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. The Celtics have no game tomorrow and should lock in for this one. Boston lists Jaylen Brown (questionable) and Kristaps Porzingis (questionable) on the injury report. Cleveland lists Donovan Mitchell (out), Max Strus (out), Caris LeVert (questionable) and Isaac Okoro (questionable).
Boston has gone a profitable 30-27-3 ATS, slightly better than Cleveland (29-29-2 ATS). However, the road has been unkind to the Celtics, as they’re just 12-13-3 ATS away from home. The Cavs haven’t been very good on their own floor, as they’re sitting at just 13-16-1 ATS in Cleveland. Their lack of available pieces at wing is a huge concern, too — Sam Merrill, Georges Niang and Dean Wade aren’t going to cut it versus Boston.
The spread and moneyline haven’t moved, but the total has dropped by three points.
Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends
PHI: -105 | BKN: -115
PHI +1.5: -125 | BKN -1.5: +105
Over 212.5: -110 | Under 212.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 4 p.m. ET
The Brooklyn Nets will host the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesay. Philadelphia will play on Wednesday while the Nets are coming off a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. The 76ers remain without Joel Embiid, Robert Covington and De’Anthony Melton, and now Cameron Payne has picked up a questionable tag as well. Brooklyn’s injury report is worth monitoring as all of the team’s starters played 36-plus minutes on Monday night.
The 76ers have been one of the NBA’s best teams against the spread, as they’re sitting at 33-27 ATS on the year. They dip to 16-12 ATS on the road but are 15-10 ATS as a road favorite. They’re a not-so-impressive 5-6 ATS with a rest advantage, however. The Nets are a brutal 27-31-3 ATS this year but are a profitable 17-13-3 ATS at home. However, the Nets dip back to 7-9-3 ATS as road dogs and are a terrible 2-6-1 ATS without rest.
UPDATE (2:45 PM ET): The Philadelphia 76ers have ruled out Tyrese Maxey.
The spread and moneyline are unchanged, but the total has ticked down by one.
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Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends
DET: +475 | MIA: -650
DET +11.5: -110 | MIA -11.5: -110
Over 217.5: -105 | Under 217.5: -115
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Miami Heat will host the Detroit Pistons as a double-digit favorite on Tuesday. The Heat hold that advantage despite Tyler Herro (out) and Kevin Love (out) appearing on the injury report. The Pistons are healthy except for Quentin Grimes (doubtful) but are sorely missing the spark that veteran Bojan Bogdanovic, a piece they moved at the trade deadline, often provided as a scorer.
Miami has been the better team against the spread — but barely. The Heat sit at 30-29-1 ATS on the season while the Pistons are just 29-30-1. Miami dips to 12-17 ATS at home while Detroit improves to 16-15 ATS on the road. The Heat had been on a, well, heater, before failing to cover against Utah on Saturday. They are 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games — but they are also yet to cover as a double-digit favorite this season.
The odds for this one haven’t budged off the opening numbers.
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends
ATL: +125 | NYK: -150
ATL +2.5: -105 | NYK -2.5: -115
Over 215.5: -110 | Under 215.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Trae Young-less Atlanta Hawks will visit the OG Anunoby and Julius Randle-less New York Knicks on Tuesday. The Knicks are also listing Jalen Brunson as questionable with a knee injury he suffered early versus the Cavaliers on Sunday. Atlanta is back in action again tomorrow but New York gets two nights off. The Hawks also list Kobe Bufkin (questionable), who had been playing meaningful minutes since Young’s injury, on the injury report.
The Hawks are an atrocious 19-41 ATS this season, which ranks them worst in the NBA. The Knicks are a far better 31-28-2 ATS. The Hawks are also an NBA-worst 9-19 ATS on the road and are just 6-12 ATS as road dogs. But the Knicks aren’t great against the spread at home, where they have gone 15-15-1 ATS but 12-9 ATS as a home favorite. Still, it’s hard to justify getting action on this one before we know more about Brunson.
The total for this one has dipped by a point. The spread and moneyline have moved marginally in New York’s favor.
New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors NBA Odds & Trends
NOP: -450 | TOR: +340
NOP -9.5 -105 | TOR +9.5: -115
Over 228.5: -110 | Under 228.5: -110
Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
I don’t know what the Toronto Raptors are doing. Re-signing Kelly Olynyk for two years certainly was a choice. With Scottie Barnes (out), Jakob Poeltl (out) and Bruce Brown (out) all on the injury report, we can probably expect to see plenty of Olynyk on Tuesday. He won’t be enough to top a healthy New Orleans Pelicans team that hasn’t played since last Friday and won’t have to play again until this Friday.
The Pelicans have gone an impressive 33-27-1 ATS this season while Toronto sits at a brutal 28-32-1 ATS. New Orleans is 16-13-1 ATS on the road but is only 6-8 ATS as a road favorite. The Raptors are 13-18 ATS at home and 5-9 ATS as a home dog. Although the Raptors got by the Hornets by five at home without Barnes and Brown on Sunday, that wasn’t enough to cover. They’re also 5-7 ATS with a rest disadvantage while New Orleans is 9-6 ATS with a rest advantage. The Pels are also 8-1 SU when listed as an 8.5-point favorite or greater.
New Orleans’ advantage has grown by a point. The total remains unchanged.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets NBA Odds, Injuries & Trends
SAS: +240 | HOU: -300
SAS +7.5: -105 | HOU -7.5: -115
Over 228.5: -115 | Under 228.5: -105
Game Time: 8 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Houston Rockets are in that funny tier of not technically eliminated from the play-in tournament but also not likely to make it. Their opponents, the San Antonio Spurs, have long since been eliminated, so if they want to win and forego improving their lottery odds, they should be able to. This relatively healthy Houston squad is back in action again tomorrow. The Spurs list Victor Wembanyama (questionable) on the injury report.
The Spurs took the first meeting between these teams back in early October, but the Rockets got a nine-point win in December. Houston has also been better at covering, as Ime Udoka’s squad is 30-28-2 ATS, better than Gregg Popovich’s 30-31 ATS record this season. The Rockets also are the fourth-best team at covering home games and are 19-10-1 ATS in Houston. San Antonio is 16-17 ATS on the road. The Rockets are a steady 11-4 SU as home favorites this season. They are yet to lose when favored by four or more points.
The odds for this one haven’t budged off the opening numbers.
Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks Odds, Injuries & Trends
IND: +155 | DAL: -190
IND +4.5: -110 | DAL -4.5: -110
Over 245.5: -110 | Under 245.5: -110
Game Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET
The Indiana Pacers will host the Dallas Mavericks in the slate’s toughest game to handicap. Luka Doncic (questionable), Derrick Jones Jr. (questionable), Dereck Lively II (questionable) and Maxi Kleber (questionable) are all on Dallas’ injury report; Aaron Nesmith (questionable) is on Indiana’s. Fortunately, neither squad will have to play again tomorrow, but the uncertainty makes this one tricky to figure out.
Both Dallas and Indiana have been solid against the spread this season. Dallas is 32-29 ATS while Indiana is 32-28-3 ATS. However, home games have often gone poorly for the Mavs, as they’re just 14-18 ATS in the American Airlines Center. The Pacers are just 14-14-1 ATS on the road, too. I’m sitting this one out until we know more about Doncic.
The total for this one has ticked down by a point.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets NBA Odds & Trends
PHX: -105 | DEN: -450
PHX +9.5 -110 | DEN -9.5: -105
Over 223.5: -110 | Under 223.5: -110
Game Time: 10 p.m. ET
NBA odds as of 3 a.m. ET
In the slate’s final game, the Phoenix Suns will visit the Denver Nuggets on TNT. This game would’ve been much more interesting if Devin Booker (out), Josh Okogie (out) and Jusuf Nurkic (questionable) were all healthy, but they aren’t, so the Suns are massive dogs for their fourth game in three days. The Nuggets, who have a nearly unblemished injury report, have been off since Saturday and won’t play again until Thursday.
The Nuggets haven’t been good at cover this year, as they’re just 27-32-2 ATS, but the Suns have been worse, as they’re the NBA’s second-worst team at 24-35-2 ATS. Phoenix improves marginally to 12-15-1 ATS as a road team and 4-6 ATS with a rest disadvantage. However, Denver is 14-14-1 ATS at home, winning by an average margin of 9.8 points. The Nuggets also won and covered in their only game against the Suns to date this season.
The odds for this one haven’t budged off the opening numbers.
NBA Picks Today: Tuesday, March 5
I’m laying more juice than I’d like to with today’s NBA picks, but we’re scoring enough early value for me to justify laying 1.5 units on a two-leg parlay.
First, give me the Pelicans to win. They’re healthy, far better rested and won’t have to worry about Scottie Barnes. This Raptors roster is just awful right now and the Pels will get the job done.
Next, give me the Rockets to win. The Spurs could rule out Victor Wembanyama, which would likely give us some closing-line value (CLV). Further, the Rockets just showed a ton of heart in a win over the Suns on Sunday.
The Pels are playing for seeding. The Rockets are playing to establish a winning team culture. Their opponents — well, whoever suits up for their opponents — are playing for the lottery.
NBA Pick Today: NOP ML/HOU ML -141 at FanDuel
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