Including a look at a key Todd Golden moment in his tenure, it’s time to continue our best college basketball bets today series. But first, let’s provide some educational information.
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Best College Basketball Bets Today
Alabama at Florida
Alabama hosted College Game Day on Saturday with a massive game against Tennessee. The Crimson Tide faltered down the stretch, and with that loss, they no longer control their own destiny in the SEC. The Tide will now have to pick themselves up off the mat and prepare to head down to Gainesville to face the Gators. Florida has had a breakthrough season in Todd Golden’s second year at the helm, and the Gators will be hungry for revenge.
Florida held a 10-point lead on the road against South Carolina on Saturday, and they collapsed late in an eventual loss. Their offense struggled to match the Gamecocks’ zone defense, but I doubt similar issues will present themselves. The Gators are just outside the top 100 in points per possession (PPP) against man while ranking 244th against zone, but the Tide have played just three possessions of zone defense all season per Synergy.
The Gators are a nightmare to defend as they have a breath of capable scorers. Four different players average double-digit points and nobody has higher than a 24% usage rate. The Gators are well-equipped to attack the Tide’s defensive weaknesses. Florida is top 50 in PPP on cutting possessions – Alabama ranks 345th. Florida is 20th in PPP on pick-and-roll ball-handler plays – Alabama is 295th on defense.
Overall, Alabama ranks just 100th in adjusted defensive efficiency and is even worse on the road, where they rank 323rd in opponent effective FG%. If all else fails, expect Florida to eat on the offensive glass. The Gators are the third-best offensive rebounding team in the country, led by center Micah Handlogten, who leads the SEC in offensive rebound rate. Alabama, meanwhile, ranks 230th in defensive rebounding.
Alabama’s offense will be its driving force per usual, but they don’t shoot nearly as well on the road. Their 3-point shooting drops from 39.8% (24th) to 34.7% (99th) on the road. Florida does an excellent job of running teams off the three-point line, ranking 51st in opponents’ 3-point shooting rate. They held Alabama to just 8-32 from 3-point range in their first matchup.
Florida gave Alabama all it could handle earlier this season in an eventual overtime win for the Tide. This time in Gainesville, I’m betting on the Gators getting to the window with the fuel of a raucous home crowd. Florida gets a massive Senior Night win in a defining moment of the Todd Golden era.
Best College Basketball Bets Today: Florida -1.5 (play to -2)
Syracuse at Clemson
On Clemson’s senior night, the Tigers draw a tremendously favorable matchup against Syracuse. The Orange are coming off a road win over a moribund Louisville team, but for the most part, it’s been a real struggle for them away from home. Syracuse has road losses to the class of the conference – Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wake Forest – by an average of just under 27 points per game.
Clemson should follow suit with a blowout win, and it starts with senior center P.J. Hall, who leads the team with 18.6 points per game. Hall gets a phenomenal matchup against Syracuse, whose injuries on the interior have led to 6’8” forward Maliq Brown serving as the de facto starting center. The team’s undersized interior defense has had all sorts of issues, ranking outside the top 290 in defensive rebounding and 2-point FG% allowed.
Syracuse also ranks in the 9th percentile defending the rim per Synergy, while Clemson is an elite rim-attacking team, ranking in the 96th percentile on offense. If the Orange are forced to commit extra resources to the interior, it will lead to open opportunities for Clemson’s shooters, including former Syracuse player Joe Girard III, a former Orange who hit 4 3-pointers against his former team earlier this season.
Meanwhile, the Orange will likely struggle to find consistent open looks on the perimeter as a team that primarily focuses on jump shooting. The Tigers allow unguarded jump shots at the 10th-lowest rate per Synergy and rank 29th in open 3-point rate allowed per ShotQuality, while the Orange rank outside the top 340 in both categories on offense.
The quick turnaround from Saturday to Tuesday is especially problematic for a Syracuse team that lacks depth, ranking outside the top 300 in bench minutes per KenPom. Clemson’s physical interior play will wear on the Orange, and if any starters get into foul trouble, it will further complicate matters.
I expect full focus and motivation from Clemson after an upset loss against Notre Dame over the weekend, especially with four of the team’s top five players in minutes celebrating their senior night. Take the Tigers to earn a blowout win on Tuesday night.
Best College Basketball Bets Today: Clemson -9.5 (play to -10)
