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NBA Parlay Picks: Can Game Theory Make Us a Profit? (March 24)

With the NBA playoffs almost here and several teams on the outside looking in, not every team has the incentive to win. That means bettors can use game theory to cook up some sharp NBA parlay picks, especially when fading teams with an active incentive to lose. Here are my top NBA parlay picks for Friday, March 24 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

Best NBA Parlay Picks | March 24

Washington Wizards Moneyline (-370)

Let’s start with the card’s early game. The tanking San Antonio Spurs will face the Washington Wizards this evening. At 32-41, the Wizards still have a 6% chance of making the playoffs despite ranking 12th in the Eastern Conference. They’ll need some bad games from the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers, but a play-in bid is still possible.

Even though Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma have been out (and will remain out tonight), the Wizards haven’t stopped trying. Washington started out strong against the Denver Nuggets before fading down the stretch. The Wizards rank a concerning 26th in net rating since the All-Star Break (-6.2), but they should beat the 30th-ranked Spurs (-9.2)

Toronto Raptors Moneyline (-1400)

The Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies are the two biggest favorites on tonight’s card. They’ll face the Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets, respectively — the two teams other than San Antonio who are currently on pace for the best odds in the draft lottery. We’ll back the Raptors, who have much more to lose as the ninth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto ranks a solid 16th in net rating since the All-Star Break (+0.1). Their opponents, the Pistons, rank 29th (-8). Detroit won’t have a number of key pieces this evening, including Bojan Bogdanovic, who has been shut down for the year, Isaiah Stewart and Hamidou Diallo. The Pistons have lost their last four games and should keep sliding tonight.

Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (-210)

After a terrible start to the year, the Los Angeles Lakers have clawed into the 10th seed in the Western Conference. They are in a four-way tie with the Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder at 36-37. The 35-37 Utah Jazz are a half-game behind.  The Lakers would fall out of the play-in with a loss this evening, so don’t expect them to falter.

The Thunder haven’t tanked as aggressively this year as we’ve seen them do in years past, but because they’re on the wrong end of a back-to-back, it’s the perfect spot for them to hold out some starters. The Thunder are an acceptable 18th in net rating since the All-Star Break (-0.6), but they trail the eighth-ranked Lakers (+3.5).

Final NBA Parlay Picks for March 24

Wizards ML & Raptors ML & Lakers ML: +110 for 0.5 Unit at FanDuel

With a price of +110, this parlay has implied odds of 47.6%. However, I believe this play hits more than half the time because of the teams on the losing side of each bet lacks the incentive to win. We’re placing this NBA parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you don’t already have a FanDuel account, you can register using this link to score $200 in bonus bets after you place a $20 wager! That’s a great way to build your bankroll, especially in advance of the NBA playoffs.

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