My god. That Warriors-Kings game was absolutely DRUNK AF last night. Spoiler alert: not great for any NBA parlay picks. A rough way to come off an NBA parlay win on Monday, but let’s win our second parlay in three days with this 4-leg banger that’s all the way up to +968 over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Anthony Davis o22.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Status alert: Anthony Davis (leg) headed to locker room Monday.
— Underdog NBA (@Underdog__NBA) November 7, 2023
All jokes aside, AD looks like a strong bet tonight, despite being listed on the injury report with a hip issue. He’s probable, but don’t get it twisted, he is going to play.
And who does he play? The WOAT Pistons.
This is a great matchup for Davis, who is bigger and stronger — and just flat out better — than anything Detroit has to throw at him. I was initially eyeing his rebound prop, but 12.5 seems right on.
What doesn’t seem right on his this points prop — 22.5 seems too low for him in this matchup. He should be able to eat up anyone down low, and can step out for jumpers. The OddsShopper Prop Tool is with me, having Davis going over 22.5 points 55% of the time here.
Lakers -7.5 vs Pistons (NBA Pick)
If you saw any part of the Lakers’ last game, you witnessed an absolute curb-stomping from the 76ers. This feels like a spot where the Lakers might have some revenge in their hearts.
Getting beat by 44 points is not something you want to follow up with another dud. I’m looking at the Lakers to absolutely obliterate the Pistons here in this spot, and even the line of -7 or -7.5 is far too low.
I think LA has something to prove tonight, and I believe it includes a massive blowout over Detroit. And, if you’re feeling extra spicy, I’d even be willing to put a sprinkle on Detroit team total UNDER 100. I think the Lakers are coming in hot tonight.
Joel Embiid o17.5 Rebounds + Assists (NBA Player Prop)
It’s no secret, Joel Embiid is one of my favorite players to bet on, and I’m still kicking myself for not betting his triple-double prop the last time out. He’d been flirting with it for so long, and I can’t believe I didn’t bet it like the beta cuck I am. Fire me into the sun!
I found a line on Embiid tonight that I love, especially with it being at +105. The rebounds + assists total is sitting at 17.5, and that just seems a bit too low considering his 35% usage rate so far this season. He’s involved in every offensive possession for the 76ers when he’s on the floor.
Digging into Embiid’s game logs, he’s gone over 17.5 rebounds + assists in four consecutive games, and seven of his last nine.
The Pelicans aren’t exactly known for cleaning up the boards, and Embiid could snatch 12-15 rebounds with ease. If we get anything over 12 rebounds, this play is a lock.
Jordan Clarkson o4.5 Assists (NBA Player Prop)
When I fired up the OddsShopper Prop Tool this morning, this was one of the first bets I put in because it was popping in our model. Jordan Clarkson‘s over on 4.5 assists has an expected win rate of over 55%.
In fact, Clarkson is averaging 5 assists per game, and has cashed this prop in four of his last five games, including a 10-assist game his last time out.
The Jazz aren’t playing at break-neck speed, but they do like to get up and down, so there should be plenty of chances to spread the ball around.
Moreover, the Grizzlies are bottom 12 in the NBA in terms of defensive rating; and the Jazz are 25th for that matter. So, I’m not sure either team will be really capable of stopping the other, no matter how broken the offenses might be.
Let’s fire up the Clarkson over on 4.5 assists tonight and cash ourselves a big one.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Joel Embiid (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 2: Anthony Davis o22.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 3: Jordan Clarkson o4.5 Assists (NBA Player Prop)
Leg 4: Lakers -7.5 (NBA Pick)
= +968 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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