The NBA retakes center stage for men’s basketball after a thrilling weekend slate of March Madness. So, without further ado, let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Monday, including a Tyrese Haliburton prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Monday, March 25
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Dorian Finney-Smith Bet
Dorian Finney-Smith should get the start tonight with Cameron Johnson out, but even putting him in for 32 minutes has me shorting him at 17.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA).
His season-long rates of 8.5/4.5/1.5 at north of 28 minutes a night gives us only 14.5, so despite the matchup with the Toronto Raptors, he’s projecting well beneath 17.5 for me.
Plus, the Nets have started experimenting with the back of their bench due to this being a lost season, dusting off names such as Trendon Watford and Noah Clowney at the four.
So even if it’s interim head coach Kevin Ollie’s wishes to extend his main starters to win games and secure the long-term gig, he may have no choice but to mix and match other players in for Finney-Smith.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Dorian Finney-Smith Under 17.5 PRA -120 at BetMGM
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Tyrese Haliburton Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting tools recommend that you stop what you’re doing and get some money down on this Tyrese Haliburton player prop before sharp bettors gobble up the value. Fanatics is offering a bet for odds of -115 that our model believes has true odds of -129, a conclusion it reaches because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the same bet priced for -155.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, are enough to transform your bankroll. Last week, we cut up the books for a 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Expert Pick Today: Tyrese Haliburton Under 10.5 Assists -115 at Fanatics
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Darius Garland Bet
This Darius Garland bet was trading ever-so-slightly below the threshold for positive expected value (+EV), but we’re still beating the market substantially. Pinnacle is taking action on Garland’s over 29.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) for odds of -129, but we can buy the same bet for -106 at Unibet and BetRivers. I bought in at -105 on FanDuel before they adjusted. Make sure to get in early before the value on this NBA player prop bet disappears.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, but they tapped out early versus the Miami Heat yesterday. Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and company all played only 22 minutes or less, so they should be fresh to beat up on the Charlotte Hornets tonight. With Garland getting off so many shots and continuing to shoot well without teammate Donovan Mitchell, we’re trusting him to stuff the stat sheet on Monday. That’s the least we can ask of him in this matchup.
Garland has played the Hornets three times since the 2021-22 season without Mitchell. Over that sample, he averaged 30.7 PRA. He should explode again with Charlotte struggling versus point guards: over the last 15 games, the Hornets have coughed up the seventh-most points (25.8), most rebounds (8) and 12th-most assists (8.7) per game to the position.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Darius Garland Over 29.5 PRA -106 at BetRivers
