As we wait for the Final Four to get underway in March Madness, the NBA offers up a solid slate for Thursday evening, including a pair of games on TNT. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Thursday, including a Joel Embiid prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Thursday, April 4
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Joel Embiid Bet
Joel Embiid should be active tonight after going through shootaround, but there’s very little chance he isn’t still limited after missing 29 games before Tuesday’s return. Tyrese Maxey should be back in the mix, too.
Bam Adebayo is one of the preeminent defenders in basketball, and Miami has done a fantastic job of containing opposing big men in all major categories throughout the year. This is currently a 4.5% EV play on Caesars in our market-based betting tool.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Joel Embiid Under 40.5 PRA -116 at Caesars
For the best price currently available, check out our Jole Embiid PRA live odds page!
— Dave Loughran
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Nikola Jokic Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting model strongly recommends putting some money down on this Nikola Jokic player prop ASAP before sharps bid down the line. Bets like this one rarely stick around forever and can get bet off the board quickly!
Hard Rock and ESPNBet are currently offering a bet for odds of -115 that our model believes has true odds of -125 — which it concludes because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the same bet priced for -136.
Over a large enough sample size, bets like this one are enough to transform your bankroll. Two weeks ago, we cut up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Expert Pick Today: Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 Points -115 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Nikola Jokic points live odds page!
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Jalen Johnson Bet
I saw a Jalen Johnson player prop trading with positive expected value (+EV) atop our betting model today: his rebounds prop. The under 8.5 costs only -123 at Caesars but clocks in at -162 on Pinnacle, a sharp book. But instead of playing that line straight up, I advise pairing it with his points prop (16.5). We can get the points and rebounds line at 25.5 for odds of -115 at Fanatics, giving us a smidge of edge breathing room.
I want action on Johnson’s points under because the Dallas Mavericks have figured out how to defend the paint. Since the All-Star Break, Dallas ranks sixth in points in the paint allowed per game (46.3) and third in field goals allowed in the restricted area per game (14.4). Johnson thrives in those zones, leading the Hawks with 10.3 points in the paint per game since the All-Star Break with 32% of his made field goals coming from the restricted area.
While we’re fading Johnson as a rebounder for mostly market-based reasons, some projection-based reasons support the conclusion as well. While he is averaging 8.8 rebounds since the All-Star Break, those have come on an average of only 13 rebound chances, giving him a 67.9% conversion rate. That’s one of the highest rates in the league and doesn’t align with the 60.8% rate he recorded before the All-Star Break.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Johnson Under 25.5 Points & Rebounds -115 at Fanatics
For the best price currently available, check out our Jalen Johnson points & rebounds live odds page!
