The NBA retakes center stage of the basketball world over the next few days as we wait for the return of March Madness. The schedule-makers have put together a strong card for this evening’s slate, including a pair of games on TNT. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Tuesday, including a Tyrese Haliburton prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Tuesday, March 26
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Zion Williamson Bet
Zion Williamson was already seeing an increase in touches and shot volume with Brandon Ingram on the floor, so with Ingram off the floor due to injury, he is likely to see more volume and usage. We could be looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-plus shot attempts, and he is likely to be relied upon as the catalyst for the Pelicans’ offense against the Thunder tonight.
In his 27 career games without Ingram, Zion is averaging 27 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists, as well as a 31.5% usage rate. In a game with a 1.5-point spread, this game is projected to be competitive, and, if that’s the case, Zion will have to be a big reason why the Pelicans are fighting for a win in the end.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Zion Williamson Over 32.5 Points & Rebounds -115 at FanDuel
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Domantas Sabonis Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting model strongly advises geting some money down on this Domantas Sabonis player prop ASAP before sharps gobble up the value. Act fast because bets like this one can get bet off the board quickly!
Hard Rock is currently offering a bet for odds of -115 that our model believes has true odds of -126 — which it concludes because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the same bet priced for -140.
Over a large enough sample size, bets like this one are enough to transform your bankroll. Last week, we cut up the books for a 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Expert Pick Today: Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 Rebounds -115 at Hard Rock
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Jalen Williams Bet
Two Jalen Williams player props were popping with some marginal positive expected value (+EV) in the model this morning: his points (17.5) and his assists (3.5). But when we combine the two for his points and assists prop (21.5), we’re moving the hook around for a bit of breathing room without sacrificing a ton of juice. Pinnacle lists Williams at odds of -122 to stay under 17.5 points and +108 to stay under 3.5 assists; we’re buying this bet for odds of -110 at DraftKings.
We’re fading Williams versus an increasingly stingy New Orleans Pelicans interior defense. Williams attempts 60% of his field goals in the paint, which could lead to problems for him in the scoring department — New Orleans ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game since the All-Star Break (43.3). The Pelicans held him to only 15 points in January on shooting splits of 50/25 (he didn’t make it to the charity stripe).
As far as assists go, Williams averages 4.5 per game, but that number has ticked down to 4.1 since the All-Star Break. The Pelicans have also allowed the ninth-fewest assists per game since the All-Star Break (25.3). Over the last 15 games, they rank 11th-best in assists allowed per game to power forwards, too (4.1). Let’s play him to stay under 21.5 for the friendly price of -110.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Jalen Williams Under 21.5 Points & Assists -110 at DraftKings
NBA Expert Pick #4: Best Dallas Mavericks–Sacramento Kings Bet
We have two teams who consistently play to the under in this one — and each side is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back set.
Dallas just ran up and down the floor in Utah, while both teams have seen heavy minutes for their impact players — Luka Doncic just played 41 minutes, for instance. Neither team is interested in a track meet, so take the under.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Mavericks-Kings Under 233 -110 at Caesars
