It’s a light Saturday in the NBA as they want no part of competing with the football driven Thanksgiving holiday. It was even a quiet black Friday for the league as they wait to pounce on Christmas as the true owner of that holiday. Yet, we remain here to provide our NBA player prop picks and predictions today!
With just five games the pickings might be slim, but that’s why we rely on Portfolio EV to help sift through the excess. The slate doesn’t even jump out much with both Paul George and Joel Embiid still out for the 76ers. Just three of the 10 teams in action have winning records, two are playing in Phoenix.
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Saturday, Nov. 30
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Things have been rough since the NBA took a one day break, at least for me and my Road to 100 units in the NBA. I dropped 7u on Wednesday, and another 9.6u last night. Part of this journey is showing you with full transparency how wild some of these swings can truly get. Even with these absurd nights of losing, I still find myself up over 40u on the season. It’s not easy going through the course of a season expecting to win every night, and those nights that return red numbers are tough to swallow.
It’s part of the journey. It’s why you see others here doing the same thing, be it Greg or Nathan, as they document their own roads to success. We even see nights where the tools aren’t the same across the board, showing more proof that the markets move and adjust. Some of it is simply getting ahead of closing line value, and the tools will absolutely give you the best number or price at any given point of the day. Here are our top three for Saturday night.
If you are reading this right now, open a new window and immediately bet Brook Lopez U 5.5 rebounds +110 at FanDuel. We aren’t going anywhere, just don’t close this window first. OK, good? Oh no, did it disappear since I posted and played this? These are both examples of how and why Portfolio EV works.
First, let’s look at the play itself as that will help you understand why it might be gone by now. The true odds for Lopez staying under 6 rebounds should be -117, yet one book is offering us a +110 return on a ticket. Right away that’s an advantage.
What furthers this example in our favor is looking at the rest of the market. The second graphic shows ESPN as the second best offer on the market. It’s -130! Not only is ESPN ripping you off compared to the true odds, it’s trying to separate itself as the best of the worst offers.
We get a price that’s 40 cents better than the next best offer. Sure, maybe FanDuel is on to something but the reality is they are far more likely to be wrong than the 9-10 other books. That’s also why this bet might be gone by the time you are reading it.
Sports books aren’t in the business of losing money, at least on their own mistakes. Chances are these types of offers won’t last long as the books realize then adjust any mistakes. Betting against the market with a favorable position is a +EV wager and Portfolio EV is full of them.
We aren’t just in the “under” business either. You see PJ Washington slides in with an over 14.5 points ticket, one that also is best bet on FanDuel. We get the same advantage by playing the under 5.5 assists for Tyrese Maxey – makes sense with no George or Embiid.
Remember to check our tools multiple times a day as the market is in constant flux. You want to get the best price for these tickets as they pop up – so feel free to set +EV alerts on site or the app. Happy hunting!
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
