Don’t let the lighter slate scare you; there’s plenty of value to be had across the market. The injury news continues to dominate the later part of the day, which can always mess with closing line value. For the most part, the patterns stay the same as we continue to find pathways to profit! We have a massive game between the Cavaliers and Thunder in Oklahoma City, followed by a desperate Kings team hosting the Rockets. Here are your top NBA player prop picks today!
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Thursday, Jan. 16
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
While I’m currently running (cold) a daily parlay thread on X, I showed some massive value in how our tools are best used. I’ve gone 0-12 over the past two days on posted parlays, yet I’m still up nearly 15 units on the month. My NBA bets are mostly all solo plays off the tools, which allows me to take some risks on parlays while still improving the bankroll. It’s not just lotto tickets; I’m pushing smaller-leg parlays off our tools using the most recent data.
While these are best bet solo, feel free to run these three into the parlay grinder. Malik Beasley staying under 3.5 made 3’s is our top play of the night. There are a bunch of reasons why Beasley will stay under: Matchup, what he did over the last five games, what he did over the last 10 games against the Pacers. None of that factors.
The reasons the play returns a 5% EV edge are the odds and history of the market. Beasley could fall flat on his face three minutes into the game or have one of the coldest nights of his life. The factors that get him there are never of the highest importance.
It’s posted at +110 on DraftKings. That’s better than Hard Rock and BetMGM — each at or around the +100 true odds. Beat the true odds of any bet and you can secure long-term profit.
I mentioned the history of the market. Everyone is worried about the script but ignoring actual data. We have the script, as detailed as it’s going to get, with something called historical return on investment (HROI). This shows what the market yields over time. We track our EV results, so these are built off every +EV bet posted in that category.
We beat the true odds with Beasley and are betting into a market with an HROI of 6.5%. That’s the same approach with the other two plays and why it’s even easier to use our tools — we do the hard work for you.
You can look at each player prop, try to take out the vig and match it across multiple sharp books around the planet, then punch it into a calculator — all to find the best +EV price. Or you can simply log in and trust our tools.
The Tyrese Haliburton and Fred VanVleet bets are on the same assists market, so we know there’s a 5.7% ROI. It’s the same process as with Beasley; each one of the bets beat the true odds. If we roll these into a parlay, OddsShopper will let you know the best book to place the wager.
Remember, if you build a parlay, the more legs the more risk — but if each leg is +EV, you stand a greater chance of profit over time. The best and most proven way to build a bank roll is by betting our +EV plays as straights and with as much volume as possible.
