There’s no better cure for any midweek blues than an 11-game slate in the NBA. Sure, we may see a couple of blowouts and some late injury news — but that’s just the norm in 2025. Welcome to Adam Silver’s NBA. The best news is that nothing changes for us at Portfolio EV as we provide +EV bets through a market-based approach. The more games the better; as we already have bets pumping through the pipeline. Here are a few right at the top NBA player props board!
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NBA Player Prop Picks Today: Wednesday, Jan. 29
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Our best bet at the time is Yves Missi under 7.5 rebounds -103 at Caesars. It stands out for two main reasons, the first being the -103 odds beat the true odds of -109. It’s a simple proposition for any bet to start +EV, it has to beat the true odds of the play. Anything less is simply taking a bad number. Sharp bettors bet value, not plays or games, so following that pathway is the first step to long-term profit.
The other reason is because we know this is a profitable market. The historical return on investment (HROI) is 7.7%, which means any rebound prop bet at Caesars and posted this year by our tools is netting a 7.7% ROI. It’s having the script in your hands.
As for Missi, there are a handful of reasons why he falls short of this number — from matchup to blowout against the Mavericks. None of that matters if you are betting the wrong number. At least we know the price is right and the market is profitable; that’s step 1 and step 2 in building your bankroll.
Everything posted here and with our plays has the data built in. Our next play is Ben Simmons going over 5.5 rebounds at -110 on FanDuel. We can see this number beats the actual retail value of -116 along with a 2.8% HROI. We offer full transparency as seen by the data below the play.
We’ve posted over 1,600 rebounds props on FanDuel this year. You can see the record at 877-798 overall, and the profit of $3,294 as a result. You can even pinpoint the average EV edge of each market. This is how the tools come up with the 2.8% HROI that helps us make the right selection.
Simmons is dealing with a banged-up Hornets squad minus their star point guard in LaMelo Ball. There are going to be more rebounding opportunities for this already lengthy point in Simmons, so it stands to reason he can snatch us six boards.
It wouldn’t matter if we got the wrong price. Even though our analysis makes sense, betting into a negative-HROI market or simply taking the worst of a price makes it -EV. Stay ahead of the market, beat the rest of the books, and make sure you are betting into a profitable market.
Check out more on Portfolio EV including how to handle variance. Hit me up @shanderbets if you have any questions — my DMs are always open!
