A loaded slate of men’s college basketball action awaits bettors today. With a number of buy-low spots, a few underdogs pop out as sharp value bets. Let’s dive into the odds to identify the best college basketball betting picks for Thursday, Jan. 26. The UCLA Bruins jump out as an especially sharp play.
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College Basketball Expert Betting Picks & Odds
UCLA vs. USC: UCLA (-4.5)
Fresh off its third loss of the season at the hands of Arizona, UCLA enters this game as a 4.5-point favorite over USC. While UCLA dropped its most recent game, analytics provider Shot Quality had UCLA winning the game based on the shots taken on the floor. Conversely, Shot Quality pegs USC as one of the luckiest teams in the country, overachieving by four full wins to this point in the season.
Stylistically, UCLA also presents a matchup nightmare for USC. USC ranks 50th in defensive efficiency and first in interior defense. However, it is 150th in perimeter defense, whereas UCLA ranks inside the top 100 in 3-point percentage. David Singleton leads the charge here with a 44% 3-point percentage, but even Amari Bailey, Jaylen Clark and Tyger Campbell shoot in the mid-30s in 3-point percentage. UCLA has also done a solid job mitigating the height advantages of its opponents. As evidenced by its close loss to Arizona, which has Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo, UCLA doesn’t cede much of a rebounding advantage to any of its opponents. In fact, UCLA ranks 123rd in rebounding and USC is 108th.
Milwaukee vs. Wright State: Milwaukee +4.5
Wright State defeated Milwaukee in overtime by a score of 78-74 the first time these teams played, handing Milwaukee one of its two conference losses. However, Milwaukee currently is 14-6 record after playing the 298th-most difficult schedule. Conversely, Wright State is 11-10 despite facing the 328th-toughest schedule.
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The advantages for Milwaukee don’t stop there either. Milwaukee is 195th in offensive efficiency, compared to 129th for Wright State. However, Milwaukee has done a better job shooting than Wright State. Milwaukee also ranks 139th in defensive efficiency, while Wright State checks in at 207th. Milwaukee is 52nd in 3-point percentage in the country while shooting them at the 111th-highest rate. Wright State is 247th in perimeter defense, creating a massive mismatch in Milwaukee’s favor. While Wright State appears to have a scoring advantage inside, Milwaukee ranks 55th in rebounding, which is also better than Wright State’s 145th.
San Diego vs. Pepperdine: Over 161
San Diego and Pepperdine should be fireworks of a game from a scoring perspective. Both teams play incredibly fast, averaging 72.4 and 76.4 possessions per game. For reference, the current NCAA average is 70.39 possessions per game. Both teams also score well. San Diego is 60th in offensive efficiency, highlighted by its 121st-ranked 3-point shooting percentage. Pepperdine is only 205th in offensive efficiency, but it ranks 68th in 3-point shooting percentage.
Both teams also play horrific defense, further pointing towards the over. San Diego ranks 345th in defensive efficiency, while Pepperdine checks in at 271st. Pepperdine has given up at least 70 points in every game since Dec. 10. San Diego has also given up at least 70 points in eight of its last 10 games. Overall, this contest provides the perfect combination of uptempo, solid shooting teams facing horrific defenses.
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