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Duke-Wake Forest Pick, Prediction Odds and Preview

Using the latest data and information, it’s time to continue our college basketball betting series by providing a Duke-Wake Forest pick, prediction, odds, preview and other information. Nonetheless, let’s get on with it.

Duke-Wake Forest Pick, Odds, Prediction, Preview & More

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Duke-Wake Forest Pick & Preview

Wake Forest gets an opportunity to exact some revenge on Duke this Saturday afternoon as the Blue Devils head to Winston-Salem.

The Demon Deacons enjoy the fourth-ranked home-court advantage in the country per KenPom’s metrics as Joel Coliseum has been a fortress all season. Wake Forest has a stellar 14-0 straight up and 10-3-1 ATS record at home this season.

They’re 7-0 straight up and 5-2 ATS at home in conference play, winning those seven games by an average of 19.5 points per game.

While Duke emerged victorious in the first matchup, there were some positive takeaways for Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons finished the game with 40 points in the paint to Duke’s 32 while nabbing 15 offensive rebounds to Duke’s 11.

The Blue Devils have an elite interior presence led by Kyle Filipowski, but the Deacons were not outmatched.

It’s even more impressive that Wake Forest was able to hang tough in the paint on the road due to the foul trouble they experienced. Starting center Efton Reid III was limited to just 15 minutes as he dealt with foul trouble while forward Andrew Carr fouled out. Maintaining that strong post presence is incredibly important against a Duke team that ranks in the 77th percentile in the frequency of shots taken at the rim per Synergy.

In that first matchup, we also saw Wake Forest, a typically elite shooting team, struggle to make shots. The Demon Deacons made just 23.1% of their 3-point shots, but they rank 27th in the country with a 37.3% three-point shooting clip this season. Cameron Hildreth and Kevin Miller, who average a combined 29 points per game this season, struggled mightily. They combined to shoot just 2-16 from the field (12.5%) and 0-6 from 3-point range. We should see better performances from both here at home.

If this game is close late in the second half, we could see free-throw shooting become crucial. Luckily, the Deacons are one of the best teams in the country at the charity stripe. Wake Forest makes 82.3% of its free throws in conference play, leading the ACC. Duke, meanwhile, ranks 11th in the conference at 71.1%. Duke had 12 more free throws than Wake Forest in that prior matchup, and we should see that flip somewhat here with the Deacons benefitting from a home whistle.

With foul trouble in the frontcourt and ice-cold perimeter shooting, it’s a wonder that the Demon Deacons were able to hang around against Duke in that first matchup. This time around, I’m expecting them to get the outright win in front of a sellout crowd. It’s the first sellout game for the Deacons since 2017, and I love Wake Forest to extend their stellar home record this season.

Duke-Wake Forest Pick: Wake Forest ML

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