Using the latest data and information, it’s time to continue our college basketball betting series by providing a UNC-Virginia pick, prediction, odds, preview and other information. Nonetheless, let’s get on with it.
UNC-Virginia Pick, Odds, Prediction, Preview & More
UNC-Virginia Odds
UNC: N/A | UVA: N/A
UNC -2: -115 | UVA +2: -105
Over 130: | Under 130: -110
When: 4 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings
UNC-Virginia Pick & Preview
The last time we saw Virginia, they got run off the court by their rival Virginia Tech with a final score of 75-41. Meanwhile, North Carolina has had a week off after a 15-point home win over that same Virginia Tech team.
As such, I believe this sets up a perfect buy-low, sell-high spot in the ACC. Let’s dive into the matchup.
North Carolina has historically struggled to win in Charlottesville, and they’ve lost eight straight road games against Virginia.
That includes last season, UNC coach Hubert Davis’ first trip to face Virginia coach Tony Bennett, where the Tar Heels failed to break through the 60-point barrier on offense. Bennett’s defense remains outstanding, and I believe the Cavaliers have the answers to slow down a potent Carolina offense.
The Tar Heels love to get out and run, ranking 41st in adjusted tempo and the 85th percentile in transition frequency per Synergy. However, Virginia grinds games to a halt, playing with the slowest tempo in the country, and they rarely allow opportunities in transition. The Cavaliers allow 6.8 transition possessions per game, the fewest in the country, and are in the top ten in fast break points per game allowed at 5.9.
The Tar Heels love to play through Armando Bacot in the post, but the Cavaliers have the answers to slow him down. Virginia ranks in the 90th percentile for rim defense efficiency and in the 81st percentile for defending post-up possessions. Additionally, they have allowed just 24 points in the paint per game in conference play, which leads the ACC.
Of course, the offense is the bigger question for Virginia — they rank ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency and 163rd on offense. I’m not here to sell you on that offense — it gets ugly at times. However, it’s worth noting that Virginia’s offense is much more effective at home. They have an eFG% of 53.4% at home compared to 46.9% on the road.
The Cavaliers run Tony Bennett’s blocker-mover offense that relies on screens — they run off-screen sets at the highest rate in the country. That’s one area where they could find success against North Carolina, who ranks in the sixth percentile defending off-screen sets this season.
The Cavaliers have been an elite 3-point shooting team this season, ranking 28th with a 37% shooting clip from deep. That’s likely unsustainable, but perhaps they can keep it rolling for another game at home against a UNC defense that still has looming negative regression — the Tar Heels rank 336th in open 3 rate allowed per ShotQuality.
It’s rare to find Tony Bennett as a home underdog, but he’s been profitable in this spot, hitting at a 13-9 ATS (59%) clip in his career. Overall, his Virginia teams are 105-83-3 ATS (56%) at home and 71-59-3 ATS (55%) in ACC play. With North Carolina’s recent struggles in Charlottesville in mind and a matchup that favors the Cavaliers’ elite defense, we’re buying low on Virginia here.
UNC-Virginia Pick: Virginia +2.5
