Baylor finished 2022 with a mediocre 6-7 record. This included four straight losses to end the year, including a 15 point bowl loss to Air Force. Baylor did fall short by six points or less against BYU, West Virginia, and TCU, which matters only for those diving deep. This year, FanDuel Sportsbook has opened the bidding on Baylor’s win total at 7.5, with the under juiced to -188. The Bears sits at +1700 to win the Big 12. These odds trail just Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Texas Tech. With all of that said, let’s dive into our 2023 Baylor football predictions with a season preview and roster overview.
2023 Baylor Football Predictions & Season Preview
2023 Baylor Football Season Preview: Coaching Staff
Baylor’s head coach Dave Aranda enters the fourth year of his tenure after starting 20-16. This has been a roller coaster ride for Aranda to this point. The team went 2-7 in 2020 before winning the Big 12 in 2021. Last year, the team fell back to Earth and Aranda ended up hiring a new defensive coordinator this offseason.
Matt Powledge will now handle those responsibilities after working as Oregon’s co-defensive coordinator last year. However, he coached the two previous seasons on this Baylor staff. Jeff Grimes will hold down offensive coordinator after being hired in 2021. This team has a lot of roster turnover, so the defensive coordinator change can be painted in a variety of lights.
2023 Baylor Football Season Preview: Offense
Quarterback
At quarterback, Baylor returns their 2022 starter Blake Shapen. He is 6-1, 200 pounds and completed 231 of his 366 pass attempts (63.1%) for 2,781 yards (7.6 YPA), 18 touchdowns, and ten interceptions. Shapen only rushed for 96 yards on 76 attempts, pointing to limited mobility. However, he did finish as the Big 12’s third graded passer in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus.
Behind him, Baylor lost Kyrone Drones to Virginia Tech, but they added Sawyer Robertson from Mississippi State and RJ Martinez from Northern Arizona. Robertson is a former four-star recruit from the 2021 class, who will allegedly battle Shapen for the starting job. He only has 11 career pass attempts, but he comes with an elite recruiting pedigree. Martinez looks like the third string for now, but he put up solid efficiency stats over the last two years in the FCS. This quarterback room remains deeper than last year’s, but upper end talent remains questionable.
Running Back
Baylor looks to have a crowded running back room ahead of 2023. They return their top rusher from 2022 in Richard Reese. As a freshman, he rushed 197 times for 981 yards and 14 scores. The 5-9, 175 pound back also caught 12 balls for another 84 yards, but logged two drops. He averaged 2.73 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 17.8% of his attempts. They did lose their second leading rusher Craig Williams, but they returned third leading rusher Qualan Jones and added Dominic Richardson from Oklahoma State.
Jones is 5-10, 242 pounds and rushed 92 times for 455 yards and seven scores. He caught 24 balls for 140 yards, but he absurdly logged seven drops. He averaged 2.83 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 26.1% of his attempts. Finally, Richardson stands 6-0, 210 pounds and rushed 149 times for 560 yards and eight scores last year. He caught 21 balls for another 216 yards. Richardson averaged 2.79 yards after contact and forced a missed tackle on 22.1% of his attempts. Overall, this backfield remains in a solid place.
Wide Receiver
The receiver position should be in a pretty good place too. The Bears lose veteran Gavin Holmes, but they return three of their top four pass catchers. This group is highlighted by Monaray Baldwin, who caught 33 balls for 565 yards and four scores last year. He stands 5-9, 164 pounds and played in the slot 86.2% of the time. His 2.60 yards per route ranked fifth in the Big 12. Josh Cameron caught 28 balls for 386 yards. He is 6-1, 216 pounds and played out wide 86.2% of the time. His 1.83 yards per route ranked 17th in the Big 12.
Finally, Hal Presley returns after catching 32 balls for 382 yards and four scores. He is 6-3, 199 pounds and played out wide 94.3% of the time. His 0.98 yards per route ranked 43rd. Baylor also added Arkansas transfer Ketron Jackson, who could start over Presley. He is 6-2, 209 pounds and caught 16 balls for 277 yards last year. He didn’t show great efficiency, but his depth will be nice at the very least. The rest of the receiver position remains unproven, but Baylor has 2022 four-star Armani Winfield still on the roster. He didn’t play much this spring, so the two-deep looks like a wait and see for Baylor.
Tight End
With receiver not quite as deep as some other Big 12 rosters, Baylor will likely rely on their tight ends. This team already plays a lot of 12 personnel and this group has the depth to do so again in 2023. The team lost Ben Sims this offseason, but they added North Texas transfer Jake Roberts. Roberts is 6-5, 250 pounds and caught 28 balls for 394 yards and three scores. He posted an elite 1.80 yards per route while blocking on 64% of his snaps.
The team also returns Drake Dabney, who played 332 snaps last year. The same goes for Kelsey Johnson at 344 snaps. Dabney caught 16 balls for 173 yards, while Johnson operated more as a blocker. Ultimately, this looks like one of the deepest positions on Baylor’s 2023 roster.
Offensive Line
Baylor returns just one starting offensive lineman this year. They lost left tackle Connor Galvin, center Jacob Gall, right guard Grant Miller, left guard Micah Mazzccua, and right tackle Khalil Keith. The only returning starter will be right tackle Gavin Byers. He played 547 snaps last year and has eight starts over the last two years.
The team did add a pair of BYU transfers in Clark Barrington and Campbell Barrington. Clark has four years of starting experience, coming most at guard. However, he has been working at the center position this spring. Campbell only played in six games last year, but has been solid in a limited role. He has been working at left tackle this spring.
The guards look like Tate Williams and Elijah Ellis. Williams made the move from tackle to guard this spring, but he is a former four-star recruit. They also recruited four-star freshman Isaiah Robinson in this incoming class. Baylor has done a pretty good job recruiting offensive line, so another younger player could emerge as well. It’s hard to envision this group playing to the same level as the 2022 squad.
2023 Baylor Football Season Preview: Defense
Baylor ranked 39th on defense in 2022. This included the 61st-ranked run defense, 47th-ranked pass rush and 33rd-ranked secondary. Baylor lost a massive amount of production, including four starters in the secondary. Combined with a linebacker and a number of defensive linemen, this group has a lot of new faces. They did add four transfers and one four-star recruit, but we will see if that can be enough.
Defensive Line
The Bears actually come with some decent returning production on the edge. Garmon Randolph was recently reinstated to the team after an off-field incident. He finished with 4.5 sacks. 7.0 tackles for loss, and 42 tackles as one of the more productive edge rushers. On the other side, TJ Franklin returns after playing 554 snaps.
Randolph actually played 534 snaps, but he came in far more productive than Franklin. Regardless, this team actually has returning production here, in addition to depth pieces Cole Maxwell and Jackie Marshall, who played 274 and 264 snaps last year. They also added Utah State transfer Byron Vaughns on the edge.
The interior lost stud Siaki Ika this offseason, but they return Gabe Hall. Hall played 534 snaps last year and finished with 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss. His 37 tackles were also solid for an interior defender. He will be joined by JUCO prospect Jarrell Boykins. Little is known about Boykins at this point, except he weights well over 300 pounds. Beyond this, Baylor will have to fall back on their recruiting and younger players on the interior defensive line.
Linebacker
Linebacker lost Dillon Doyle, but returns Matt Jones after 608 snaps last year. Jones ranked third on the team in tackles with 65. He broke up four passes in coverage, but PFF graded him as a much better run defender. It looks like he will be joined by Liberty transfer Mike Smith on the other side. Smith played well across the board with 62 tackles last year and just 73 yards into his coverage. With the elite production, hopefully the jump to the Big 12 isn’t too much for Smith. Tyrone Brown should provide depth after 183 snaps last year.
Defensive Back
With Baylor losing most of it’s secondary, major questions remain for this unit. It looks like one of the corner positions will be held down by Miami transfer Isaiah Dunson. Dunson only played in four games last year, but he only allowed one catch into his coverage. Right now, it looks like the other corner will be Tevin Williams III after 125 snaps in 2022. This position has yet to be settled with players like Chateau Reed in the mix. Ajani Carter also transferred in from Utah State after playing 593 snaps last year. He struggled with that level of competition, making Baylor a tough ask.
Baylor uses three safeties with the Star position operating as a hybrid. The team moved Bryson Jackson to that role this spring. Star will play in the box, as a true safety, and even as a slot corner at times. Jackson played 240 snaps last year and actually operated more as an edge.
The lone full time returning starter here is Devin Lemear after 799 snaps last year. Lemear broke up four passes, recorded two interceptions and logged 56 tackles last year. The final safety should be AJ McCarty after 439 snaps last year. While most of these came at corner, he operated as a safety through much of spring. Like corner don’t be surprised if a young player steps up or if Baylor mixes and matches within the secondary.
2023 Baylor Football Schedule & Predictions
Baylor Football 2023 Schedule
Baylor plays Texas State, Utah, and Long Island in the non-conference, which should result in a 2-1 record at the worst. Within the Big 12, they draw Texas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and TCU. They dodge Oklahoma and the rest of their schedule remains reasonable.
Baylor Football Win Total Predictions & Best Futures Bet
Seeing Baylor’s win total at 7.5 comes in as a slight surprise, given the amount of production they lost. Even with a moderate schedule, this team should be a clear underdog to Texas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech, if the season started today. That leaves a number of pick’em games like Utah, TCU, and UCF, where Baylor would have to run the table. Ultimately, it could take another year to Baylor to fully gel in the new Big 12. Under 7.5 wins at -188 still makes the most sense.
Best 2023 Baylor Football Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5 Wins -188 at FanDuel
You can read the rest of Matt Gajewski’s 2023 college football season previews and predictions below!
- Alabama Season Preview & Predictions
- Arkansas Season Preview & Predictions
- Auburn Season Preview & Predictions
- Florida Season Preview & Predictions
- Georgia Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa Season Preview & Predictions
- Iowa State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kansas State Season Preview & Predictions
- Kentucky Season Preview & Predictions
- LSU Season Preview & Predictions
- Michigan Season Preview & Predictions
- Mississippi State Season Preview & Predictions
- Missouri Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma Season Preview & Predictions
- Oklahoma State Season Preview & Predictions
- Ole Miss Season Preview & Predictions
- South Carolina Season Preview & Predictions
- TCU Season Preview & Predictions
- Tennessee Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas Season Preview & Predictions
- Texas A&M Season Preview & Predictions
- Vanderbilt Season Preview & Predictions
- West Virginia Season Preview & Predictions
