College football’s premier accolade, the Heisman Trophy, is awarded to the country’s most outstanding player each year. With the award receiving so much attention, the betting markets have also erupted. This piece will dig into which players typically win the Heisman and who that could potentially be this year, be it Caleb Williams, Jordan Travis or a longer shot.
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Early 2023 Heisman Trophy Odds: Jordan Travis Sneaks In?
While the award is supposed to go to the country’s most outstanding player, it actually goes to the best quarterback on the best team at the Power 5 level. Over the last 23 years (since 2000), 19 of the 23 winners have been quarterbacks, and all 23 have attended Power 5 schools. The average winner plays for a team with 12.1 wins and only 1.5 losses.
There have been a few exceptions to this rule. The only players with more than two losses were dual-threat quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III and Tim Tebow. Of the non-quarterback winners, none played for teams with more than one loss. With these criteria narrowing the potential winners, here are some options for the 2023 season.
2023 Heisman Odds: The Favorite
Caleb Williams (+500)
Last year’s winner in Williams enters 2023 as the favorite to take home this award again. He is playing quarterback for a team with a 10.0-win total, so he very much fits all of the criteria to take home the Heisman. However, as Bryce Young displayed last year, winning this award twice is difficult.
It should be noted that Young lost Jameson Williams and John Metchie following his Heisman campaign and had no clear replacements. Williams lost Jordan Addison this offseason, but USC filled the void with Arizona transfer Dorian Singer. Singer ranked second in the Pac-12 in receiving yards last year and brings proven production. In addition, Williams retains an elite group of skill players like Mario Williams and Tahj Washington. While the payout is not substantial, Williams is the rightful favorite to take home the Heisman.
2023 Heisman Odds: The Next Tier
Jayden Daniels (+1000)
Behind Williams, sportsbooks list LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels as the second favorite to win the award. Daniels fills most of the boxes for a Heisman candidate, except LSU’s win total of 9.5 trails some of the elite teams. Daniels does make up for some of that with his elite mobility. Last year, he rushed for 885 yards and 11 touchdowns for LSU. However, Daniels will have to drastically improve his passing numbers in order to take down the Heisman. So far, his career high sits at 2,943 yards, which he achieved in 2019. Daniels and LSU also play a brutal schedule, consisting of Florida State in addition to the usual suspects in the SEC West. At +1000, better values can be found on the board.
Jordan Travis (+1200)
Like Daniels, Florida State’s Jordan Travis plays the quarterback position for a Power 5 program. However, Florida State’s 10.0-win total is lower than other teams in the country. Travis possesses solid mobility, with at least 400 rushing yards in three straight seasons, but he also needs to improve as a passer to win this award. Last year, Travis threw for a career-best 3,214 yards and 24 touchdowns. However, the season opener against LSU could limit him and/or Daniels in the Heisman race long-term.
2023 Heisman Odds: The Mid-Range
Carson Beck & Kyle McCord (+1800)
Carson Beck is the presumed starting quarterback of Georgia, and the Bulldogs enter the 2023 season with an 11.5-win total and a cupcake schedule. They underwent a change at offensive coordinator, but no other team has a better shot at the College Football Playoff. With Stetson Bennett finishing as a Heisman finalist last year, Beck provides decent odds in the Heisman market.
Like Beck at Georgia, Kyle McCord enters the 2023 season as the presumed starter for Ohio State. The Buckeyes play a more difficult schedule, but McCord also has the luxury of throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Given Ohio State’s 10.5-win total, McCord also has a decent shot at taking down the Heisman Trophy.
J.J. McCarthy & Bo Nix (+1800)
J.J. McCarthy quarterbacks a Michigan offense pegged for 10.5 wins. However, he has the luxury of a full season under center under his belt. McCarthy and Michigan play a relatively easy schedule, but Michigan prefers a run-heavy approach. That said, a step forward from 2,719 yards and 22 touchdowns through the air could land McCarthy in New York. McCarthy possesses strong dual-threat ability behind his 306 rushing yards last year, which only helps in the eyes of the voters.
Bo Nix also has a year of starting experience in the Oregon system. Oregon changed offensive coordinators this season, but it still has a 9.5-win total. While this is on the lower side for Heisman candidates, Oregon just needs to surpass USC in order to potentially punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff. What Oregon lacks in projected wins Nix makes up for in statistical production. Last year, he threw for 3,593 yards and 29 touchdowns, in addition to rushing for another 510 yards and 14 touchdowns. Only a late-season injury prevented him from potentially being a finalist in 2022. With a slight improvement in Oregon’s win/loss record, Nix could find himself in New York.
Joe Milton (+2500)
New Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton oozes raw potential. He flashed his elite playmaking ability when Hendon Hooker went down last year, throwing for 251 yards and three touchdowns against Clemson in the bowl game. Tennessee still has a 9.5-win total and draws the easier side of the SEC. With a decent showing against Georgia, Tennessee could get in the playoff conversation, with Milton potentially receiving Heisman consideration.
2023 Heisman Odds: The Longshots
Dillon Gabriel (+4000)
Oklahoma’s incumbent starter Dillon Gabriel threw for 3,168 yards and 25 touchdowns in just 12 games last year. He also unlocked his mobility with 315 yards on the ground. Oklahoma has a 9.5-win total this year and a marquee game against Texas. With a win over the Longhorns and a strong showing in the Big 12 Championship, Gabriel would deserve longshot consideration. It should be noted that Gabriel lost his top weapon in Marvin Mims, but the only other worry here is 5-star freshman quarterback Jackson Arnold breathing down his neck. With that said, if Arnold makes starts at any point, Oklahoma likely will not be good enough for either quarterback to win the Heisman.
Jalen Milroe (+5000)
In perhaps the most interesting situation of all, Alabama has a three-way quarterback battle on its hands. From a futures perspective, Milroe is the most interesting due to his mobility. He was the backup over Ty Simpson last year, and Milroe now just needs to beat out Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner. Alabama still has a 10.5-win total and historic recruiting classes stacked up around Milroe. If he has an electric rushing season and College Football Playoff berth, Milroe will deserve strong consideration for Heisman.
Tanner Mordecai (+12000)
Wisconsin only has a win total of 8.5. However, this is juiced towards the over at -140, likely due to the Badgers’ soft schedule. Even with a game against Ohio State, Wisconsin has a strong path to the Big Ten Championship. Tanner Mordecai comes over from SMU, where he threw for at least 3,524 yards and 33 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. He also has decent mobility with 304 career rushing yards. The Wisconsin offense will look much different under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo and help facilitate some of these numbers. At extremely long odds, Mordecai is worth a shot.
2023 Heisman Odds: Players to Avoid
Quinn Ewers (+1200)
Texas only has a 9.5-win total, and Arch Manning will be fighting with Quinn Ewers for the starting job. Ewers also does not offer anything on the ground and has yet to show anything close to elite passing numbers.
Michael Penix Jr. (+1600)
Washington only has a 9.5-win total, and Michael Penix Jr. does not use his legs. This defense will be a concern when Washington is stacked up against Oregon and USC. While Penix threw for 4,641 yards and 31 touchdowns last year, he did not even finish among the top-3 finalists. What has changed this season, and what else would he have to do to reach New York?
Drake Maye (+1600)
North Carolina has an 8.0-win total and is not good enough to propel someone to the Heisman. If voters viewed this any differently, Drake Maye would have won last year. He also lost his top two receivers.
Sam Hartman (+1800)
Notre Dame has a 9.0-win total, a run-heavy offense and no proven pass catchers. Michael Mayer hit the NFL. As such, Sam Hartman will not have the weapons to produce.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (+3000)
The odds need to be longer for a non-quarterback like Harrison.
Conner Weigman (+4000)
Texas A&M has an 8.0-win total and Jimbo Fisher ran this team into the ground last year. Can they improve enough to propel a relatively unproven pocket passer in Conner Weigman to the Heisman?
