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CFB Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 5 (September 30)

It was too much to ask Chip Kelly to change his ways as UCLA barely showed up last week. The same won’t be said for this week’s play as Week 5 has a massive showdown favoring the underdog. Expect a low scoring battle between these two squads as the favorite is looking to shake off a tight loss last week. It’s been nothing short of spectacular for this undefeated underdog as they look for their first 5-0 start since 1994. Let’s head to Durham to look at our CFB upset and underdog picks for Week 5!

CFB Upset & Underdog Pick for Week 5: Notre Dame-Duke

Notre Dame-Duke Upset Pick

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Unlike last week, this pick relies on a coach willing to adapt and adjust in order to win. Mike Elko has changed thinking and execution by the Blue Devils to the tune of a total revamp on offense. They still make their bones on defense first, much like their opponent in Notre Dame, but any quick strike by Duke’s offense has proven to be deadly.

That’s truly all this game hinges on for Duke – get out early and they win. The Fighting Irish come off a devastating loss to Ohio State that isn’t as easy to comeback from as being stated across the national media. Duke and Notre Dame are playing to a total currently listed at 52.5 but that should cruise to the under as both teams are willing to trade defensive haymakers. Don’t forget what Duke did to Clemson in the opener, holding that team to just seven points.

The magical season for Duke rolls on after a win over Notre Dame but this isn’t going to come easy. Beating Clemson in the opener in front of the entire nation was a fantastic warm up for this team, knowing they won’t succumb to the bright lights. Riley Leonard has been sharp at QB for Duke, rolling over each of their four opponents this year.

There is a general belief that Duke’s defense will struggle against Sam Hartman and the Irish offense, but that’s just based on the paper test and nothing that Duke has done defensively. The Irish get no benefit of the doubt despite being the best defense on paper that Leonard will face, as he’s stepped up to a similar challenge and belief to start the year. Notre Dame is not Clemson, but Duke is battle tested.

One interesting note on the Irish defense is how little they pressure the QB off sacks, even though it hasn’t hurt their defensive rankings. Notre Dame ranks 92nd overall with just seven sacks on the year. They cover exceptionally well but now face a dynamic QB who can extend plays on his own. It’s way too tight of a matchup, the Irish are still licking their chops, and most of the public will fade Duke because that’s a basketball school.

CFB Upset Pick for Week 5: Duke +175 FanDuel Sportsbook

Looking for other Week 5 CFB Underdog picks and more?

How about our 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!

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