The 2022 college football season is nearing a conclusion. Bettors only have a few chances left to maximize their bankroll, and it’s harder to turn a profit on conference championships and bowl games due to the attention the books can dedicate to setting their lines. With the Week 13 college football betting odds already open, bettors should tail these early college football predictions and pick for a solid return.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Getting CLV also allows bettors to middle before the game even starts. Let’s dive deeper into some college football picks.
Week 13 College Football Predictions & Picks
The books have set another service academy total far too high. The Air Force Falcons and San Diego State Aztecs have a posted number of 43.5. While playing the under matchups between service academies is always a popular (and profitable) choice, bettors have just one more chance to ride the gravy train with next month’s Army-Navy game. However, this weekend’s contest between Air Force and San Diego State is the next best thing.
Air Force ranks 131st in seconds per play (32) and first in rushing play percentage (87.9%). The Falcons rank a solid 66th in points per game (27.1) and an even more impressive fourth in points allowed per game (13.9). Their opponent, San Diego State, ranks 128th in seconds per play (29.8) and 17th in rushing play percentage (59%). The Aztecs rank just 99th in points per game (21.5) and a solid 31st in points allowed per game (22.2).
San Diego State plays offense at a slower pace than the other two FBS service academies, Army (29.7) and Navy (29.7). Air Force has played both programs already, and those contests both stayed well under their totals. The Falcons’ trip to Annapolis resulted in a 23-point game, 15 points below the closing number. Their neutral-site game against Army resulted in a 20-point game, 20.5 points below the closing number.
Bettors should expect plenty of punting because Air Force and San Diego state can stop the run. Air Force ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.6). Army gained only 2.2 yards per rush against them, while Navy gained 3.2. San Diego State ranks a solid 45th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.5) and held Air Force to 4.0 last year in a 34-point game.
Air Force-San Diego State Prediction: Under 43.5 (-110 for 2.2 Units) at DraftKings
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish started their season slowly but picked up steam under new head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish now rank a respectable 13th despite losses to Stanford, Marshall and Ohio State. But those slipups are significant, and bettors would be naive to back them as 5-point road underdogs in Los Angeles. The USC Trojans still have a College Football Playoff bid on the line, while the Irish are playing only for pride.
The No. 5 USC Trojans rank 13th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Their offense ranks an impressive third behind quarterback Caleb Williams, who has shown enough talent to warrant consideration as the first overall pick in 2024. He ranks ninth in passing efficiency and trails only Oregon’s Bo Nix in the Pac-12.
USC’s offense lost star running back Travis Dye two weeks ago against Washington, which forced Lincoln Riley to emphasize the pass last week against UCLA. Williams responded by throwing for 470 yards and two touchdowns on 10.9 yards per attempt. He added another 33 yards and a score with his legs. USC’s offense averaged 8.2 yards per play, an uptick from the 7.1 the unit averaged in the regular season.
In contrast, the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish rank 23rd in the FEI. Their offense ranks just 47th and their defense 26th. They rank a solid 20th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.3) but have struggled against efficient quarterbacks. Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud averaged only 6.55 yards per pass attempt against them in Week 1, but North Carolina’s Drake Maye averaged 9.4 and scored five touchdowns. Williams and the Trojans should outscore a Notre Dame offense that ranks a lowly 60th in yards per play (5.5) and 57th in yards per pass attempt (7.5).
Notre Dame-USC Prediction: USC -5 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at Caesars
The 5-6 Miami Hurricanes are not a good football team. Head coach Mario Cristobal has struggled in his first season at the helm, and his squad enters Week 13 without bowl eligibility. Miami ranks 87th in the FEI behind its 93rd-ranked offense and 59th-ranked defense. But the Hurricanes showed some life late against the Clemson Tigers, and they’ll have their season on the line this Saturday. In contrast, the 7-4 Pitt Panthers are out of the ACC championship race and have a road trip south into 80-degree weather in store.
The Panthers have historically struggled against the ‘Canes. Head coach Pat Narduzzi owns a 1-6 record against them and is yet to win in Coral Gables. Although he told reporters not to fixate on the past, it makes sense that the cold-weather Panthers struggle in the South Florida heat. They even struggled in 75-degree weather against North Carolina back in October. Although the Panthers rank 49th in the FEI behind their 21st-ranked defense, this weekend’s matchup may come down to conditioning.
But there are more reasons to back the ‘Canes beyond game theory and the weather. Pitt’s star running back, Israel Abanikanda, suffered an injury against Duke last week. Abanikanda is the heart and soul of Pitt’s offense — he has gained 1320 yards on the ground, which ranks 11th in the FBS and first in the ACC. His 18 rushing touchdowns tie him with Blake Corum and DeWayne McBride for the second-most. With Pitt not in contention for the playoff or ACC championship, Narduzzi is unlikely to rush his star rusher back into action.
Pittsburgh-Miami Prediction: Miami +6.5 (+100) at DraftKings
