The Indiana Hoosiers open their season with a home game against the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Hoosiers are favored in the college football betting odds despite two key factors.
First, former quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who led the team in its impressive 2019 and 2020 campaigns, is no longer in the Big Ten. Second, the Fighting Illini just thumped Wyoming by 32 points with impressive play on both sides of the ball.
Although neither Illinois nor Indiana enters the year as true Big Ten contenders, this non-divisional matchup would help either team set up a possible run at a bowl game.
Bret Bielema’s Illini should make that happen in his second year at the helm, and scoring a win over Indiana would be a crucial step in that direction.
Below we’ll break down the game and find the best Illinois vs. Indiana prediction for their Week 1 matchup.
Illinois vs. Indiana Week 1 College Football Betting Picks
Illinois vs. Indiana Betting Odds
Illini Looking to Build on Wyoming Blowout
The Illinois Fighting Illini scored an impressive 32-point home win over Wyoming in Week 0. New quarterback Tommy DeVito tossed for 194 yards and two scores and completed 73% of his passes. More impressively, running back Chase Brown ran for 151 yards and two scores on 7.9 yards per carry. Brown added another 16 yards and a score in the passing game. He'll anchor Bret Bielema's power running game moving forward.
Look for Illinois to deploy a run-first attack as the team attempts to grind out wins against conference opponents. Bielema's Wisconsin teams consistently ranked inside the 15% in total rushing attempts, and his Arkansas teams consistently ranked in the top 50%. Illinois attempted the 44th-most runs last season as well. If Bielema can find an edge on the ground, he'll take it.
Everything went smoothly for the defense last week. Last year's leading tacklers, Sydney Brown and Tarique Brown, made their return, but they didn't need to do much. Still, Brown forced a fumble. Junior defensive back Devon Witherspoon also intercepted a first-half pass and returned it for 40 yards. Wyoming scored only six points — both on field goals — and recorded just 30 passing yards on 20 attempts.
Rebound Needed for New-Look Hoosiers
Last year went poorly for the Indiana Hoosiers. After entering the year ranked No. 17, the Hoosiers suffered a blowout loss to Iowa and never recovered. Once quarterback Michael Penix Jr. went down in Indiana's early October matchup against Penn State, their season was effectively over. The Hoosiers lost their next seven games and ended the year without a conference win.
Few players return from last year's roster. Penix is off to the Pac-12, so either Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak or backup Jack Tuttle will take over under center. Former four-star quarterback recruit Donaven McCulley has converted to wide receiver. Leading rusher Stephen Carr is gone, as are leading receivers Peyton Hendershot and Ty Fryfogle. Leading tacklers Micah McFadden and Raheem Layne are gone, too. Defensive tackles Ryder Anderson and Weston Kramer also left in the offseason.
The 2022 Hoosiers will look very different from their 2021 counterparts. That said, head coach Tom Allen remains, although with a different set of coordinators. But it may take Indiana some time to adjust with new starters all over the field — something that stands in stark contrast to an Illinois team that already has a win under its belt.
Illinois vs. Indiana Prediction
Although the Hoosiers will have home-field advantage, it's hard to get excited about backing them on the college football betting markets. Indiana went 1-5 at home last year and is just 14-14 in Bloomington under Tom Allen. That doesn't a meaningful advantage make. The amount of roster and coaching turnover should have rendered Indiana a home underdog, yet they opened as field-goal favorites over Illinois. While that number is no longer on the board, the Illini remain a 2-point underdog at DraftKings. We'll target the +108 outright available at FanDuel instead.
As of Wednesday afternoon, 84% of the cash had come in for Illinois to cover. Their strong Week 0 performance should have swung the market by a wider margin, especially against a reeling Indiana team. The Illini should impose their will against Indiana on the ground to score a nice road win. If you can Illinois in the plus money, take it.
Best NCAAF Bet: Illinois ML +108 at FanDuel | Buy to +100
