If you are looking at Indiana and Cincinnati from a distance, you would see a 3-0 Power Five team as a 16.5-point underdog to a 2-1 AAC team and probably double-take.
While the spread is a little bit of an eye opener, it’s clear that Cincinnati is actually playing at a much higher level than Indiana is and despite having a loss on their resume, the Bearcats are surely deserving favorites.
The betting public isn’t buying any of it, however, with over 70% of the bets on this game on the Hoosiers with the masses clearly not believing in the Bearcats as such heavy favorites.
After starting the season ranked and losing a close game on the road to Arkansas in its opener, Cincinnati has been dominant in victories over Kennesaw State and Miami (OH). Coach Luke Fickell has his Bearcats playing at an extremely high level, despite losing a ton of NFL talent from last year’s College Football Playoff team.
Despite being 3-0, the Hoosiers have been outgained in two of those three games, and when looking into the numbers it’s clear the team is far worse than its record shows.
Indiana vs. Cincinnati Predictions and Betting Picks
After enjoying the comforts of home for its first three games, Indiana now must head on the road to a hostile environment in Cincinnati at what should be a raucous Nippert Stadium.
Even with a 3-0 record, nothing has come easy for the Hoosiers as all of its wins have come with second half comebacks. In Week 1, Indiana inched by Illinois, 23-20. A week later, the Hoosiers were down 10-0 at halftime against Idaho before fighting back for a 35-22 win. Last week was the closest of them all, as they barely survived Western Kentucky beating the Hilltoppers 33-30 in overtime.
After a rough start in Arkansas against a really good Razorbacks team, Cincinnati has resembled last year’s Playoff team with quarterback Ben Bryant leading the way. After totaling 337 yards passing while completing 74.3% of his passes last week, Bryant is coming off his best game of the season and with both Charles McClelland and Corey Kiner in top form it should be a real long day for the Hoosiers defense.
Should Cincinnati be this big of a favorite?
It’s rare to see such a big underdog get so much love across the betting markets, but that’s where we are with seemingly no one wanting to put money on the Bearcats. As such huge favorites against an undefeated team from the Big Ten, it’s no surprise Cincinnati isn’t getting any love but be forewarned that chalky underdogs rarely work out as the masses think they should.
While its 3-0 record might indicate otherwise, Indiana’s offense has been just average so far ranking 79th in the country in Offensive Success Rate, including 87th through the air and 61st on the ground. Against a middling Western Kentucky defense last week the Hoosiers had just a 66th percentile Offensive Success Rate, and after three games this offense is currently ranked just 92nd by SP+.
Despite its limitations, the Hoosiers offense is led by quarterback Connor Bazelek who has already thrown for 891 yards to go along with five touchdowns. While he’s been productive through the air, Bazelek has also had luck on his side so far as he’s only thrown two interceptions but made five turnover-worthy plays. Bazelek has played his best ball in the fourth quarter, leading Indiana to comebacks in all three of its games. The Hoosiers are going to need a massive effort from their signal caller to have a chance to stay with the Bearcats in this game.
Revenge for Indiana?
Indiana has gone 14-1 against non-conference opponents in the regular season under coach Tom Allen, with the only loss coming loss season to Fickell’s Bearcats. While the players on Cincinnati’s side might have changed a bit, the program is still the same with a stout defense to pair with a well-balanced offense. While Cincinnati seems to be playing better and better since it’s Week 1 loss to Arkansas, Indiana is regressing despite its 3-0 record suggesting otherwise.
Indiana vs Cincinnati Prediction
With the Bearcats favored by 16.5 points in a game with a 57.5 point total, expect Cincinnati to have a ton of success against an overrated and overmatched Indiana defense. The Hoosiers are ranked 98th in the country defending the pass and while SP+ has them as the 64th-best defense in the country. Cincinnati will be by far the best offense Indiana has had to face this year. Along with the aforementioned Bryant, McClelland and Kiner in the Bearcats backfield, wide receivers Tyler Scott and Tre Tucker are both playing well, with each surpassing 100 yards receiving last week. Cincinnati’s offense has been really good since that loss to Arkansas and there’s every reason to expect that to continue on Saturday afternoon.
The public can’t get enough of Indiana in this spot and considering it’s undefeated record and Big Ten pedigree, it makes all the sense in the world. There’s a reason Cincinnati is 16.5-point favorites, however. Last time I checked, sportsbooks don’t really like to give away free money unless it’s in the form of a promo.
Simply put, Indiana should likely be 1-2 right now based on the advanced numbers but has somehow come out of its late-game situations with wins. That’s not to take everything away from what the Hoosiers have done, but it’s clear the market is too high on Indiana while also being too low on the Bearcats at the moment. The play here is definitely on Cincinnati -16.5 and I’m happy to go against what the masses think will be a surefire Indiana cover.
Best NCAAF Bets: Cincinnati -16.5
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