The Kansas Jayhawks have come tumbling back down to Earth after a thrilling start to the year. They’ll next head to Waco for a matchup with the Baylor Bears. Unsurprisingly, the college football odds show Kansas as a sizeable underdog for the matchup. Bettors should head to DraftKings sportsbook to tail these Kansas-Baylor picks and predictions.
Baylor, the defending Big 12 champions, certainly had more in mind than a 3-3 start. But with quarterback Blake Shapen now dealing with an injury, just like Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels, Baylor’s season has rapidly spiraled out of control. With Kansas undefeated against the spread, the Bears have their work cut out for them.
College Football Odds: Kansas-Baylor Odds
Kansas Hasn't Played Defense This Year
Although it's tempting to think so, these aren't the Kansas Jayhawks that went on a 5-0 tear to start the season. After quarterback Jalon Daniels went down against TCU, backup Jason Bean took over. Bean hasn't been as effective on the ground, as he averages only 4.3 yards per carry, but he has been a bit more effective through the air. Bean has a slightly worse completion percentage than Daniels -- 64.2% to 66.7% -- but he has generated 10.4 yards per attempt (Y/A) to Daniels' 9.2 Y/A. While Bean hasn't played enough to qualify to be ranked in passing efficiency, his current rating of 190 would rank second in the FBS. The shift from Daniels to Bean isn't a downgrade, but it is a change.
Regardless of who they have under center, the Jayhawks can move the football. The offensive line has done a good job of protecting its quarterbacks, as the unit ranks 11th in sack rate (2.6%). Kansas ranks eighth in yards per play (6.8) after gaining 7.4 yards per play against TCU and 6.8 against Oklahoma. While plenty of their yards came against the Sooners came in garbage time, the Jayhawks still managed to cover the +10.5 with a meaningless fourth-quarter touchdown. That said, turnovers have become more of a concern since Bean commandeered the offense. The Jayhawks have averaged two turnovers per game since the TCU game after a relatively clean start to the year.
The Jayhawks play very little defense. The unit ranks an atrocious 110th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and 107th in yards allowed per play (6.1). The Jayhawks have fared worse against the pass than the run. Their defense ranks 59th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4) but 114th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.4). The pass rush has been some help, as it ranks 63rd in sacks per game (2), but not enough for the Jayhawks to limit opposing signal-callers. The unit also lost starting cornerback Cobee Bryant, who is responsible for two of Kansas' six defensive interceptions, to a serious injury last weekend.
Baylor Needs Shapen To Get Healthy
As with Kansas, the Baylor Bears who take the field next Saturday may not play like bettors have come to expect. Quarterback Blake Shapen suffered a concussion against West Virginia last Thursday that could keep him out of this Saturday's game. Shapen is apparently "back" with the team, but it remains unclear if he'll suit up. If Shapen can't play, backup Kyron Drones will take over. Drones, a redshirt freshman, completed half of his passes for 95 yards, one touchdown and one pick in relief of Shapen. He also added 24 yards on the ground. Still, Drones' 6.8 Y/A marked a sharp falloff from the 14.2 Y/A Shapen had been averaging before his injury.
Baylor's offense has played well this year, and Shapen deserves plenty of credit. He ranks an impressive 20th in passing efficiency despite playing behind an offensive line that gives up two sacks per game. He does get to play beside a reasonably efficient running back in Richard Reese, who ranks 54th among 157 eligible rushers in yards per carry (YPC), but Reese can't carry the offense. The Bears rank a solid 32nd in yards per play (6.1) and 24th in yards per pass attempt (8.5).
The Bears must have been hoping for more from their defense this year. The unit ranked ninth in the FEI last season but ranks just 28th now. The Bears rank 34th in yards allowed per play (5.1) but haven't shown a particular weakness to the pass or run -- they rank 45th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7) and 34th in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.1). The unit has failed to create many splash plays as well. Baylor ranks 99th in takeaways per game (1) and 94th in sacks per game (1.6). Baylor ranks juts 55th in opponent points per play (0.374) as well.
Final Kansas-Baylor Prediction & Pick
Carving out a sharp play for this game is difficult. The 10-point spread feels just right, and Kansas won't benefit from the hook should they try to mount a backdoor cover. That said, pivoting to the first-half lines reveals some value. Kansas has scored at least 14 points in each of its first halves this year, the lone exception being the game in which Daniels went down. Offensive struggles rooted in a dramatic mid-game shift are forgivable.
The Jayhawks have averaged 18 points per first half this year. Although that has dipped to 12.7 over the last three weeks, Jason Bean still led the offense to score 21 points against Oklahoma in Week 7. The matchup with Baylor should help, as the Bears have surrendered 12.8 points per first half on the year and 15.7 over their last three games. With the number below both Kansas' average points scored and Baylor's average points allowed, bettors should back the Jayhawks to go over their first-half total.
Final Kansas-Baylor Pick: Kansas First Half Over 12.5 (-115) at DraftKings
