After some fun but mostly meaningless midweek CUSA action, we’ve got a Big 12 showdown in Stillwater between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Kansas State Wildcats scheduled for tonight. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Kansas State-Oklahoma State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 6 bet!
Kansas State-Oklahoma State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 6
Kansas State-Oklahoma State Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas State: -450 | Oklahoma State: +340
Kansas State -11.5: -110 | Oklahoma State +11.5: -110
Over 53.5: -105 | Under 53.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Friday, Oct. 6 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Kansas State-Oklahoma State Pick & Prediction
Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy may be 90-29 at home since taking the reins in 2005, but it looks like he’ll be taking some nasty losses in Stillwater this season. The Cowboys will host the Kansas State Wildcats this weekend, and they are 11.5-point home dogs for the matchup. Gundy is still a solid 11-14 as a home dog — one of the best such records in the FBS since he joined the Cowboys in 2005 — but there are numerous question marks surrounding this team, perhaps none more so than who they’ll even start at quarterback. The Cowboys currently rank 117th in yards per play (4.4).
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Oklahoma State’s Week 1 starter, Alan Bowman, is one of the worst quarterbacks in college football. Through four appearances and 100 pass attempts, Bowman has completed just 53% of his throws for 5.1 yards per pass attempt and a passing efficiency grade of 96.7 — the third-worst of all eligible quarterbacks. It’s not like the Cowboys have a surefire replacement waiting in the wings, either. Gunnar Gundy has taken 34 passes, of which he has completed 61.8% for 5.9 yards per attempt and a 121.4 passing efficiency grade. Garret Rangel has taken 29, of which he has completed 58.6% for 5.9 yards per attempt and a 124.3.
The silver lining for Oklahoma State is that the defense hasn’t collapsed, and that could cause problems for a Kansas State offense that doesn’t look as good as last year’s. The Cowboys rank 56th in yards allowed per play (5.4), which is solid, and their defense entered Week 4 ranked 48th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Meanwhile, the Wildcats look a bit worse for wear on offense, especially in the running game. Last year’s lead rusher and fifth-leading receiver, Deuce Vaughn, left for the NFL. Kansas State ranks 72nd in yards per play (5.6). Quarterback Will Howard ranks 47th in passing efficiency (143.5), but his grade in the metric is down from last year (149).
It’s tempting to trust Gundy as a home dog, but this year’s Oklahoma State team might be the worst of his career. While he may find something that works in practice, especially since it’s now clear that the team is considering moving away from Bowman, I can’t trust them to keep this one within 11 or 12 — especially not after last year’s 48-point blowout loss to the Wildcats. Instead, I bought the under at the key number of 55. Since then, Pregame reports that a monstrous 85% of the cash and 72% of the tickets have come in on the over, but the total remains at just 53 or 53.5 in most spots. The lack of line movement in the money’s direction suggests you shouldn’t worry too much about such action.
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What do the projections say about this one? Parker Fleming’s model has this one projected for 52.5 points, well under the opening number and still slightly under the one you can buy now. The FEI projects this game for only 50.5 points. Both models also have the Wildcats winning — Fleming gives them a 74% chance and the FEI a 79% chance, both of which are ever so slightly shorter than their moneyline odds of -450 (81.8%). I’m sitting pretty on my under 55 ticket because I’m over the key number of 54, but if you’re eager to get some action down on Friday night’s game, wagering a half unit on the under 53.5 is a solid play. You can find it priced at -110 at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kansas State-Oklahoma State Week 6 Pick: Under 53.5 -110 at DraftKings
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 6. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!
