The No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels get to host the No. 13 LSU Tigers a week after falling to the now-No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s LSU-Ole Miss odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 5 bet! Don’t forget to take advantage of the 50% profit boost at DraftKings Sportsbook for this game!
LSU-Ole Miss Pick, Betting Prediction & DraftKings Boost | College Football Week 5
LSU-Ole Miss Betting Odds
LSU-Ole Miss Pick & Prediction
The No. 13 LSU Tigers will visit the No. 20 Ole Miss Rebels in a pivotal SEC West battle. The Rebs just fell to the Crimson Tide last week, so if they want to stay in the conference race, they’ll have to topple LSU and hope for some help later in the year. Both teams fell in the rankings this week, Ole Miss after losing to Alabama, and LSU after narrowly beating an unranked Arkansas team. With the Rebs trading as 2.5-point dogs after their loss, I’m excited about the opportunity to fade Brian Kelly’s Tigers as road favorites. LSU is 2-3 against the spread on the road and 1-3 against the spread as a road favorite since Kelly’s arrival.
Lane Kiffin’s Rebs got carved up in Death Valley last year, but it’s important to remember that the game was close until the second half because Kiffin’s offense found an edge against Kelly’s defense. Ole Miss actually won the first half, 20-17, before a late-game surge spearheaded by a turnover deep in LSU territory. The Rebs will get a chance to take revenge at home this year, and although they trail the Tigers in some key metrics, it’s usually proved sharp to fade quarterback Jayden Daniels on the road. Daniels’ passing efficiency grade dips from 156.6 in home games to only 142.1 on the road. His 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home spikes to 10:3 on the road.
Kiffin is only 10-10-1 at home since arriving in 2020, but his Rebs covered in their lone game as a home dog, and their defense looks the best it has in his time here. The Rebs rank 35th in yards allowed per play (4.9) entering Week 5, which far outpaces the Tigers (5.8). It’s not like the Rebs have just been beating up pumpkins, either — they held a then-ranked Tulane squad to 4.2 yards per play and limited Alabama to 5.4 on the road. Meanwhile, LSU coughed up 7.5 to Florida State and 6.3 to Arkansas. Holding Mississippi State to 4 was impressive, but the transitioning Bulldog offense limited themselves more than the Tigers did.
It’s just hard to pass up a home dog in SEC West play right now, especially when the favorite is LSU. The Tigers have started the year 2-2 against the spread and are 10-8 under Brian Kelly, but at No. 13 in the AP Poll, I still believe they’re overrated, and this line feels like bait the public will gobble up. The Rebs are 3-1 against the spread to start the season and are fighting to stay in the SEC hunt. Expect Kiffin to pull out all the stops against a team he got out to an early lead against on the road last season.
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Several betting models agree with this angle, which I first wrote up in the early week column. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) favors LSU by only a 1.1-point margin. Parker Fleming’s model favors Ole Miss by a 0.6-point margin as well. While that’s not the largest edge, it’s enough edge to warrant a wager — especially with the 50% profit boost available to new and existing users at DraftKings Sportsbook. I have action on Ole Miss to cover the 2.5, but I used my boost on them to cover the 3 for a chance at a push should they lose by a field goal. I advise that you do something similar.
LSU-Ole Miss Week 5 Pick: Ole Miss +2.5 -108 at DraftKings
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 5. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!