In one of Week 4’s six ranked-on-ranked matchups, the No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes will take on the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Ohio State-Notre Dame odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet! Don’t forget to use your 50% profit boost at DraftKings.
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Ohio State-Notre Dame Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Ohio State-Notre Dame Betting Odds
Ohio State-Notre Dame Pick & Prediction
The No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes will visit the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday night in a matchup with massive playoff implications. The Irish are looking to make their first playoff appearance under head coach Marcus Freeman, while the Buckeyes are trying to get back there for the first time since 2020. Both teams entered the year with new quarterbacks, but Notre Dame’s Sam Hartman has looked more impressive than Ohio State’s Kyle McCord, albeit by a close margin. Both quarterbacks have feasted against inferior opposition and will face their first true test on Saturday.
I like Notre Dame in this spot, and most of my reasoning comes down to the combination of home-field advantage and the differences between Hartman and McCord. First, Notre Dame is at home for this one, and the Irish are hard to beat here. The Irish may have gone 4-2 at home last year, losing to Marshall and Stanford, but they are 12-3 here since 2021. The Irish are 7-3 as home underdogs since 2010 as well. The Buckeyes may be a more dominant 16-1 on the road since Ryan Day took over in 2019, but they are only 9-7-1 ATS through that span.
Notre Dame also has an advantage under center. Hartman is a sixth-year quarterback who recorded a 159.4 passing efficiency grade with Wake Forest last year and currently owns a 217.8 through four games this season. Road trips to Ireland and Raleigh haven’t challenged him in the slightest. McCord is a third-year player but a first-year starter. He owns a career passing efficiency grade of 176.9, but those numbers almost all come from garbage-time reps at home. He struggled in his first game as a starter this year, recording a 115.4 against Indiana on the road. He owns a passing efficiency grade of 118.1 on the road through 44 pass attempts.
The books have Ohio State as a 3-point favorite for Saturday’s game, which is an efficient price. The Irish will likely be the public team for this one but I don’t care. McCord’s numbers, and, by extension, Ohio State’s, are inflated from him playing bad opponents at home. We haven’t seen him face a real team outside of Columbus. Hartman is the better all-around quarterback and has far more experience.
In the early week column, I recommended buying Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog. Since then, Pregame reports that the Irish have drawn 75% of the cash on 71% of the tickets. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that split slowly increase in favor of the tickets, not the cash, as kickoff approaches, but I’m still confident about my read of this game. Quarterbacks may not mean everything in college football, but they mean a heck of a lot, and Hartman is a heck of a quarterback. I’m not adding any more Notre Dame exposure to my card at the new number, but you can boost the +3.5 to a better price than what was available earlier in the week at DraftKings.
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Ohio State-Notre Dame Week 4 Pick: Notre Dame +3.5 (First $50 Boosted to +118) at DraftKings
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