Fresno State and USC are tied for 12th in total offense this season, with both teams averaging 521.5 yards per game.
This USC squad is ranked No. 7 in the nation under Lincoln Riley. They have Caleb Williams at quarterback and Jordan Addison at receiver.
Should both offenses be considered equal? Let’s explore.
USC vs. Fresno State Predictions & Week 3 Picks
USC vs. Fresno State Betting Odds, per DraftKings.
| Fresno State Spread | +12.5 (-110) |
| USC Spread | -12.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | 73.5 |
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California |
| Time | 10:30 PM EST |
| TV | FOX |
Does Jake Haener Rise to the Occasion?
Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener might only have three touchdowns on the season, but he is averaging close to 370 passing yards per game so far. That said, his first two matchups have come against lowly Cal Poly and Oregon State. They won the first game, but Haener and the Bulldogs lost last week to Oregon State, 35-32.
Haener hasn’t converted much in terms of touchdowns. Still, he has just two turnover-worthy plays. His go-to receivers are Nikko Remigio and Jalen Cooper, who each have 15 receptions.
Jordan Mims has led the way on the ground for Fresno State. He has 193 total rushing yards, with over 120 of those coming against their tougher opponent, Oregon State.
USC Looks Unstoppable
Some talk about how USC’s defense still has work to do, but remember, they do have six interceptions this season, with one being a pick-six.
In this game, with a total this high, the offenses are what matters, and USC looks almost untouchable.
Williams is completing 78% of his passes for the Trojans this season, while posting 590 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has added 102 yards on seven attempts rushing.
Wideout Jordan Addison, a transfer from Pittsburgh, has been a godsend for this offense. He may only have 12 receptions, but he has caught four of Williams’ six touchdowns. Addison averages 18.8 yards per reception so far this season.
USC vs. Fresno State Prediction
The total and the spread both seem off here. Fresno State has been great on offense but they haven’t quite faced an offensive juggernaut like USC. Suppose USC starts ramping it up and scoring left and right. In that case, this could force Haener into situations where he may press a bit and start turning the ball over against a defense that already has six interceptions this year.
Fresno State will get its points, but a total of 73.5 is simply bonkers. USC scored 66 points in Week 1 against Rice, but Fresno State is undoubtedly a better team than the Owls. USC and Stanford combined for 69 points in Week 2.
This USC offense might be so dominant that it acts as somewhat of a defense, forcing Haener and Bulldogs to have to push from behind. In a scenario like that, you can expect a lot of turnovers.
USC wins 45-24.
Best NCAAF Bet: USC -12.5 (-110); Under 73.5 (-110)
All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and NCAA.com.
