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Utah-Oregon State Pick & Prediction: Top Bet for Friday’s Ranked Matchup (Sept. 29)

The No. 10 Utah Utes and No. 19 Oregon State Beavers will face off in Corvallis on Friday night. You’ll be able to tune into the action via FS1. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Utah-Oregon State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 5 bet!

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Utah-Oregon State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 5

Utah-Oregon State Betting Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Utah: +132 | Oregon State: -160
Utah +3.5: -120 | Oregon State -3.5: -102
Over 44.5: -112 | Under 44.5: -108
Expert: Isaiah Sirois

Utah-Oregon State Pick & Prediction

We don’t often get ranked matchups on Friday night, but we’ve got just that on FS1 this weekend. The No. 10 Utah Utes will visit the No. 19 Oregon State Beavers in a crucial Pac-12 battle. The Utes have been playing without star quarterback Cam Rising, whose status for Friday’s game remains up in the air. We probably won’t know if Rising is playing until close to kickoff, which makes this one difficult to handicap. Still, because Utah is operating on a short week and Rising’s return hinges on his doctor’s approval, I’m skeptical he’ll take the field in Corvallis this week.

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The Utes have suffered a boatload of injuries this season, and, at tenth in the country, I think their current roster is hopelessly overrated. Last week, the Utes averaged a dreadful 3.4 yards per play against UCLA and tallied only 219. Their offense scored a single touchdown, and their defense nearly gave the game away at the end. The Utes rank 108th in yards per play (4.5) through Week 4, and while Rising’s return would help the offense immensely, he doesn’t have as good of a supporting cast as he once did.

The Utes draw a good Beavers team on the road this week. Utah has played on the road just once this year, and they barely scraped by a bad Baylor team, needing 14 fourth-quarter points to come back and take the lead. Meanwhile, Oregon State ranks an impressive 14th in yards per play (6.9) and is a nearly unblemished 13-1 as a home favorite under head coach Jonathan Smith. Utah blew out Oregon State in Salt Lake City last year but lost in Corvallis with Rising under center in 2021.

If Cam Rising can’t go — or if a concerning number of other starters can’t go for Utah — expect the spread to widen in Oregon State’s favor. Whittingham is a great coach, but Smith had his number the last time they met in Corvallis, and that was without the elite rushing combo of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei and running back Damien Martinez. The duo has led Oregon State to rank eighth in yards per rush attempt (5.9). Maintaining that against Utah’s defense will be tough, but short rest could limit their ability to maintain the unsustainable 1.7 yards allowed per rush attempt they have posted through four weeks.

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We bought Oregon State on the moneyline in the early week column, and, unfortunately for those who didn’t read it in time, the price for the Beavers has gotten slightly shorter. Oregon State is now -160 (61.5%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Beavs are home dogs in the two analytics-based models that I trust, but I have to believe that Utah’s numbers are inflated by a series of home games at a high elevation — and their record is inflated by some defensive scores in those games. Back the Beavers to improve to 14-1 at home under Smith.

Utah-Oregon State Week 5 Pick: Oregon State ML -160 at FanDuel

OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips

Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 5. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!

Isaiah Sirois

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Isaiah Sirois

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