Betting on the NFL early in the week oftentimes presents the best opportunities to find value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor.
We saw another low scoring week in the NFL with an average of just 40.6 points per game. Normally, we would see between 45-46 points per game, but this is now a three week trend with oddsmakers adjusting even more with their lower totals. Over/Unders went 8-8 last week, BUT 3 games finished OVER by just 0.5 points based on the closing lines.
There have been some contributing factors to the lower scoring that I can put my finger on.
#1 – The level of quarterback play has been mediocre
#2 – Defenses are still ahead of offenses
#3 – Cluster injuries are starting to add up (Bills secondary, Bucs offensive line/wide receivers, Cardinals wide receivers, Chargers whole team, Colts wide receivers, Cowboys quarterback/offensive line/wide receiver)
Thankfully, in Week 4 of the NFL season, there is a full slate of games to look at in the NFL betting odds market.
Below are three of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on the total points. Check out all of the best NFL Week 4 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on all of your bets.
Week 4 NFL Picks: Best Bets for Game Totals
Jaguars at Eagles (Eagles -6.5, 48)
The Eagles rank #1 in 1H scoring per game at 24 points (exactly 24 in each game), and were the first play I had circled on the board Sunday. The Eagles have been able to build leads in the first half, and then sit back and play prevent defense. They have looked like the best team in the NFL through the first three games in the season.
Their offensive efficiency in the 1H has been off the charts with 72 points on 18 drives (scored on 12/18 drives).
The Jaguars are looking like the most improved team vs. a year ago at 2-1 but a close loss at Washington they should have won. The Jags 1H defense has only allowed 7 points per game, but they come off a West Coast road game against the Chargers and have to travel to Philadelphia. This has all the making of a letdown spot for the Jaguars.
With the scoring being down across the league and games going under, I am looking to target specific teams on the 1H team totals. I love getting the Eagles at under the key number of 14.
NFL BETTING PICK – Eagles over 13.5 1H
Seahawks at Lions (Lions -4.5, 50)
I just missed the OVER in the Lions/Vikings as it was 52.5 at the time I wrote last weeks’ article, but it closed 51.5 and landed on 52. But I will continue the theme of betting the Lions games OVER especially at HOME. The Lions are 13-4 to the OVER in their last 17 home games and we get a Seahawks offense led by Geno Smith who has a 78% completion rate.
This total opened 46 and has steamed up to 50 which is similar to what we saw in the Lions/Commanders game which went way over the total. The Lions rank #7 in Offense DVOA while the Seahawks are just 30th in Defensive DVOA.
While the Hawks have only scored 16 points per game, they have faced two tough defenses in the 49ers and Broncos. When they got a poor Falcons defense last week they put up 23 points. Now, I look at the 1H data and really get excited as the Lions average 16.7 points per game and allow 12.7, while the Seahawks average 12.3 and allow 16.7. This puts both teams close to 30 points in the 1H and we get great value on that number.
NFL BETTING PICK – Over 24 1H (-130)
Commanders at Cowboys (Cowboys -3, 43)
One of my best bets in Week 2 was the Cowboys +7.5 against the Bengals and I wrote that this Dallas defense was being overlooked and disrespected. I like them again this week going up against a Commanders team that allowed 9 sacks to Carson Wentz against the Eagles. The Cowboys got 5 sacks against the Giants on Monday night and have 13 total which leads the NFL.
I see more of the same with the Cowboys pressuring Wentz into a lot of 3rd and longs, while grinding out on offense with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard on the ground which will limit the number of possessions the Commanders will have to score. The Cowboys defense ranks #2 in 1H points allowed at 6.0 while the Commanders offense ranks #28 at 4.7 points scored. The Commanders rank 29th in Offensive DVOA while the Cowboys are #8 in Defensive DVOA.
NFL BETTING PICK – Commanders under 9.5 1H (-110)
