Well, that didn’t exactly go to plan. NFL Week 1 featured plenty of surprises. The 49ers, Broncos and Bengals all lost as favorites of nearly a full touchdown, while the Colts could only manage a tie against the Texans. There were also plenty of disappointing performances on an individual level, which has led to some big swings in the MVP market.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into NFL Week 2.
2022 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
Riser: Patrick Mahomes +850 to +750
Mahomes’ MVP odds are a bit all over the place at the moment. He’s become the betting favorite on PointsBet at +450, while Josh Allen retains that designation across the rest of the industry. The best price on Mahomes is +750, which is available on DraftKings.
The Chiefs offense had more question marks than usual heading into Week 1. Tyreek Hill is now in Miami, and Travis Kelce is 33 years old and coming off a slightly disappointing year.
However, Mahomes and Andy Reid were as good as ever. He started his campaign with 360 yards passing and five touchdowns, and Reid created multiple opportunities for Mahomes to cash in on easy scores. Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster did an excellent job as the Chiefs’ top two pass catchers – they combined for 14 catches and 200 yards – and the secondary players were able to get in on the fun as well.
Mahomes will face tougher tests in subsequent weeks, but it’s hard to ask for a better start. This could be the last opportunity for those who didn’t get in on Mahomes before the start of the year.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Jalen Hurts +2400 to +1800
Hurts was a popular sleeper pick to win the MVP this season, and he had a dream matchup in Week 1 against the Lions. He took full advantage, leading the team to 38 points and 455 yards of total offense.
Hurts has been one of the best running quarterbacks since entering the league, and he didn’t disappoint on the ground in Week 1. He racked up 90 yards and a touchdown, and he led the team in carries with 17. That’s an absurd number of carries for a quarterback, and while that won’t continue, it goes to show Hurts’ upside.
Hurts was also adequate as a passer. His numbers don’t jump off the page – he was 18-for-32 for 243 yards – but he’s clearly going to enjoy throwing to the newly acquired A.J. Brown. He targeted Brown 13 times, and the two hooked up for 10 catches and 155 yards. If he can show some progression in the passing game and the Eagles continue to win, Hurts is going to be a factor in the MVP conversation this year.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Justin Jefferson +12500 to +7500
The best receiver in football is a tough question to answer. It’s hard to separate guys like Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams and Ja’Marr Chase, but Jefferson definitely made a statement to start the year. He torched the Packers secondary for nine catches, 184 yards and two touchdowns, giving him the top fantasy score of the week.
The fact that he did it against the Packers is also impressive. They boast one of the best cornerbacks in football in Jaire Alexander, although they made the curious decision not to shadow Jefferson in this matchup.
The biggest hurdle for Jefferson in the MVP market is his position. No receiver has ever won the MVP award. Kupp didn’t even come close to Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady in the MVP voting last year despite turning in one of the greatest seasons in the history of the position. Jefferson would likely need well over 2,000 yards and probably at least 20 touchdowns, and while those are unlikely, he put a dent in those numbers in Week 1. Still, the chances are low.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Aaron Rodgers +1000 to +1500
Rodgers is looking to become just the second player in league history to win three straight MVP awards, joining former teammate Brett Favre. However, he turned in one of his worst games in recent memory in Week 1, finishing with just 195 yards, zero touchdowns and one pick.
Rodgers is going to have to overcome the loss of his favorite receiver in Adams, and it’s possible that could hinder him more than expected. Still, Rodgers will be better moving forward. He was without new No. 1 wide receiver Allen Lazard last week, giving him an extremely unproven group of pass catchers. Getting Lazard back should be a massive help.
That said, Rodgers is not an MVP bet. Voter fatigue is a real thing, so it was going to take an absolutely monster year for Rodgers to win the award three straight times. He’s now behind the 8-ball after Week 1, so it’s going to take a herculean effort to catch up.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Kyler Murray +2100 to +3000
This one doesn’t make a ton of sense. Sure, Murray didn’t play great against the Chiefs, but that was a team-wide result. The Cardinals lost by 23 points, and there’s no shame in losing to Kansas City.
Murray’s numbers were disappointing, but they’re far from crushing. He managed 193 yards passing, two touchdowns and 29 yards rushing. There will be better games in the future, particularly once DeAndre Hopkins returns to the lineup.
Until then, Murray just needs to tread water. Most importantly, he needs to stay healthy. He was arguably the best player in the league last season before getting hurt, leading the Cardinals to a 7-0 record. His diminutive stature is always going to make him vulnerable to injuries, but he should be dynamic when he’s on the field. This is a solid buy-low opportunity.
Recommendation: Buy
Faller: Russell Wilson +1500 to +2000
This is another one that doesn’t make a ton of sense. Wilson’s team lost a heartbreaker to the Seahawks on Monday night, but his numbers were strong. He finished with 340 yards and a touchdown, and he displayed solid chemistry with his new teammates. If not for two fumbles at the goal line – one by Javonte Williams, one by Melvin Gordon – and some horrible decision making by his head coach, the Broncos would’ve cruised to a victory.
Ultimately, the Broncos put up 433 yards of total offense in Week 1, which was good for the fourth-highest mark in the league. This offense should be significantly better moving forward, and Wilson is going to be a primary beneficiary. He’s another strong buy-low target.
Recommendation: Buy
Faller: Matthew Stafford +1600 to +3000
Not all buy-low options are created equal. Stafford’s odds have cratered following his disastrous performance in Week 1, and there are simply too many red flags to ignore. His offensive line was bullied by the Bills, surrendering seven sacks. Stafford also is reportedly not at 100%, and he routinely missed throws that he should make. Despite his struggles, Kupp also had another monster showing, so his MVP case grew while Stafford’s shrank. Even at +3000, Stafford is a clear sell.
Recommendation: Sell
