The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals will square off in Week 11’s Monday Night Football matchup. With Kliff Kingsbury likely on the hot seat, the Cardinals need to string together some wins to establish themselves in the playoff hunt. A quick look at the NFL odds reveals that the 49ers are double-digit road favorites. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these 49ers-Cardinals picks and predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NFL Odds: 49ers-Cardinals Odds
San Francisco Playing Complementary Football
The 49ers have suffered a boatload of injuries this year, but they are starting to get healthy save for a few exceptions. They'll remain without two of their top cornerbacks, Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett, for the rest of the season. Defensive end Arik Armstead is yet to return as well. But defensive end Samson Ebukam is back and safety Jimmie Ward returned last week, so the 49ers have gotten at least some good news lately.
Kyle Shanahan's 49ers have been one of the premier franchises in expected points added (EPA) per play since his hiring. San Francisco currently ranks seventh in the metric, ahead of every other NFC West opponent. The 49ers also rank top five in both yards gained per play (5.9) and yards allowed per play (4.7). Good complementary football has earned them those rankings.
Shanahan's offense has emphasized the run and time of possession. The 49ers run 46% of the time, which ranks 10th. They take the fifth-most seconds per play (30.6) and possess the ball for the seventh-longest span per game (31:08). This has forced opposing offenses to pass 59.6% of the time, which ranks seventh. That number jumped to 65.9% in their last three games.
Although opposing offenses have emphasized the pass against the 49ers, it hasn't worked out against their aggressive defense. The 49ers rank seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.1) and 10th in passing yards allowed per game (197.9). Their aggressive defensive front ranks an impressive third in pressure percentage (25.2%).
Arizona Stuck With a Backup QB
The Cardinals will likely turn to their backup quarterback, Colt McCoy, once again this week. Injuries have plagued Arizona all season, especially along the offensive line. Left tackle D.J. Humphries is out, as is right guard Will Hernandez and center Rodney Hudson. Left guard Justin Pugh is out for the season as well, leaving Arizona with only one of its intended starters available: right tackle Kelvin Beachum.
Arizona's injury struggles have rendered an already inefficient offense worse. The Cardinals rank well below the league average in EPA per play. They rank a dismal 29th in yards per play (4.9) and are dead last in yards per pass attempt (6). That said, they also rank ninth in passing play percentage (62.2%) and third in seconds per play (27), which has allowed them to gain the 19th-most passing yards per game (220.6).
Kingsbury and McCoy leaned on two targets in the passing game last week: wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore. The two players combined for 27 targets, good for 72.9% of Arizona's total. With Marquise Brown still on the shelf, they're likely to see all the run they can handle again tonight.
Arizona's defense hasn't done much this year. The unit ranks 21st in yards allowed per play (5.7), 16th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.4) and 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.8). Their pass rush ranks a solid sixth in pressure percentage (24.4%) but on the NFL's second-highest blitz frequency (37.5%). As a result, opposing tight ends have often found themselves open -- the Cardinals have given up an NFL-high 77.8 receiving yards per game to the position.
Final 49ers-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
Bettors should attack Monday night's contest in two ways. First, George Kittle should beat his receiving props with ease. The Cardinals have consistently given up big games to opposing tight ends all season, and Kittle has historically owned Arizona. He went for 101 yards against the Cardinals last season and hasn't finished with fewer than 44 yards against them since his rookie year.
Second, the under has a solid amount of value in this spot as well. The total has started to tick down following the Colt McCoy news, but it should close even lower. Arizona won't have the offensive linemen necessary to move the ball, and the 49ers will wind the clock with their slow-paced, run-first offense after building an early lead.
Final 49ers-Cardinals Prediction: Under 42.5 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at DraftKings
George Kittle Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-115 for 1.15 Units) at BetMGM
OddsShopper Model 49ers-Cardinals Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives. Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the 49ers-Cardinals Monday Night Football matchup, the model has identified a San Francisco receiver as a player to buy at his current price.
Betting the over on Brandon Aiyuk's total receptions yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to Caesars for the best price on the market.
