In America’s Game of the Week, the San Francisco 49ers make the short trip to Los Angeles to take on the Rams in this NFC West interdivisional matchup. The 49ers are currently nursing a two-game losing streak while the Rams are coming off their bye week. In this post, we continue our NFL odds coverage by focusing on a valuable Darrell Henderson prop, as well as providing our 49ers-Rams prediction and picks.
Los Angeles opened up as 2.5-point underdogs before the spread was bet down to one, which is where the line currently sits. As of Friday evening, 74% of the tickets and 83% of the handle are on the road favorites.
49ers-Rams Prediction
San Francisco Run Defense Continues to Stifle
Boasting one of the best run defenses in football, the 49ers enter this week ranked second in the league in opposing rushing yards per game. Keeping some of the better running backs in check throughout the first half of the season, many opposing rushers have gone under their yardage props.
David Montgomery rushed 17 times for 26 yards in Week 1 and Christian McCaffrey rushed 14 times for 54 yards in Week 5. San Francisco’s success in suppressing opposing rushing attacks should not be shocking based on its personnel.
Prior to the season, PFF ranked the 49ers’ defensive line as the sixth-best in the league and their linebacking corps as the best. Anchoring that linebacking unit is Fred Warner, who is probably the best run-stopping linebacker in football.
While Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw, and Javon Kinlaw are all slated to miss this game, some player props are over-adjusted on Los Angeles’ side. While those guys being out hurts the defense, the 49ers will be just fine as long as Warner, Nick Bosa, and Talanoa Hufanga are playing.
Darrell Henderson Rushing Line Over-Adjusted
With the loss of Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson has taken over as the RB1 for the Rams. That being said, his rushing total should not be at 41.5 against one of the best run defenses in the league.
First of all, Los Angeles still operates a run-by-committee offense even with the departure of Akers. In their last game against the Panthers, seven (!!) different guys ran the football at least once for the Rams.
While Henderson led the team in carries, he only ran the ball 12 times and mustered just 43 rushing yards. Yes, that number is north of this week’s rushing total, but that was against a Carolina team that does not even compare to San Francisco’s rush defense.
Recording 27 or fewer rushing yards in three of his last four games, Henderson should still go under the 41.5 total despite the increased placement on the depth chart.
49ers-Rams Prediction
This game is the second and final meeting between these two teams in the regular season. They first met in Week 4 when the 49ers won 24-9 at Levi’s Stadium.
In that game, Henderson ran the ball seven times for just 27 yards. While Akers was still on the team for that contest, he also only ran the ball eight times for 13 yards.
Assuming Los Angeles implements a run-by-committee system as they did against the Panthers, then 42 rushing yards should be difficult to come by for Henderson against a stacked San Francisco rush defense.
49ers-Rams Prediction: Darrell Henderson Under 41.5 Rushing Yards (-125, DraftKings)
