To further solidify this award as something more of a “Quarterback of the Year”, the NFL sees top skill players settle for Offensive Player of the Year awards. Looking at who has a realistic shot to win this is just as valuable as jumping ahead on a number in August. If there is any case for a non-quarterback, the main issue is getting around winning Offensive Player of the Year as a consolation prize. Head on over to OddsShopper to find all of the best 2022 NFL MVP betting odds and shop the best lines. Now, let’s get into the best 2022 NFL MVP predictions and longshot bets we need to be wagering on to cash tickets this year.
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Best 2022 NFL MVP Longshot Bets & Predictions
Best 2022 NFL MVP Prediction: Lamar Jackson
The NFL MVP award is going to a quarterback. That’s pretty much all that’s known and all that’s been seen — outside of Adrian Peterson sneaking in the 2012 season as the lone non-quarterback over the past 15 years. But not every passer has a true shot to win this award, and repeat winners are certainly a thing — just ask Aaron Rodgers.
Most books will have 9 to 10 names listed before any 20-1 odds on this award. As expected, they are all quarterbacks. Similar to a tighter field in golf, finding a true longshot is simply not worth the risk. Guys like Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins may seem like value bets at 50-1, but both have running backs who could easily syphon away votes or simply attention. Even Dak Prescott, who is better than both Ryan and Cousins, has a top back who Dallas may use more with Amari Cooper gone and Michael Gallup currently hurt.
While there is value on Kyler Murray at 22-1, he begins the season without his best receiver due to DeAndre Hopkins‘ suspension and has shown plenty of variance in his game. It’s worth a note that, while the Raiders are a strong value play to win the Super Bowl, their quarterback in Derek Carr is not for this award. Neither is Jalen Hurts, who won’t have the passing numbers to keep up with bigger arms.
There’s one obvious name in this group that shouldn’t even be in this group, hence the tremendous value at 20-1. It’s a longshot compared to players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and a misprice behind guys like Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow. Lamar Jackson is the play. The Ravens have the AFC North giftwrapped for them, and Jackson returns healthy. Baltimore was decimated by injuries and has one of the deadliest pair of legs on the field, combined with a powerful and accurate arm. The Steelers are most likely starting a rookie, the Browns are without their starter for 11 weeks, and every post-Super Bowl loss metric points against the Bengals this year.
All Jackson needs to do is show up to these division matchups and Baltimore should win games, which will bump this ticket into the mid-teens after a month.
NFL MVP Bet: Lamar Jackson (+2000 BetMGM)
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Best 2022 NFL MVP Prediction: Jimmy Garoppolo
The odds for Jimmy Garoppolo are almost as outlandish as the reasoning. However, if a trade or signing goes down with one of two realistic destinations, then he will be way closer to winning this award than a 250-1 ticket. The 49ers have no choice but to trade or release their disgruntled quarterback before the start of the season and might simply cut him if no true suitor steps up. Two teams that will drastically increase his odds, either by trade or a team-friendly contract, are Seattle and Miami. Granted, the Dolphins have a young arm already on their team, but trading for Garoppolo and signing him to a prove-it deal are two different circumstances. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t proven anything in the NFL that would warrant a pass on what could be a better talent. The Dolphins added some talent around the quarterback spot and could immediately benefit from Garoppolo throwing downfield.
There’s plenty of talent to throw to in Seattle; it’s just the current crop of arms aren’t bringing much excitement. The Seahawks, from talent to coaching, would be a fantastic spot for Garoppolo, increasing the value of this ticket. This is a leap of faith, but it’s directed at the current 49ers quarterback finding a home with either better talent or coaching — or both — around him.
NFL MVP Bet: Jimmy Garoppolo (+25000 BetMGM)
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Best 2022 NFL MVP Prediction: Non-Quarterback
Even if Cooper Kupp takes a step back, Matthew Stafford reverts to the horrors of Detroit and Sean McVay forgets how to coach, it’s impossible to pass on Kupp winning the MVP at 125-1 odds. He’s down to 60-1 at DraftKings and 100-1 at FanDuel, so either way this is a ridiculous number in Kupp’s favor. Other books only have a couple of skill players ahead of him, running backs like Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, but those positions are tougher to sustain MVP-level numbers without increased risk of wear and injury. Kupp can put up numbers that make it hard to argue away him being the MVP and will certainly be a tighter favorite as the season progresses. The odds at 125-1 are just off and worth exploiting.
NFL MVP Bet: Cooper Kupp (+12500 BetMGM)
