Every year bettors all over the world circle a team or two as favorites to win the Super Bowl. It’s important to identify some necessary criteria before just throwing out money on longer odds, namely avoiding any team that finishes the season with an away game. Head on over to OddsShopper to shop the best lines for Super Bowl futures. But while you’re here, let’s go over two 2022 Super Bowl longshot bets and some of the best Super Bowl sleeper picks heading into the season.
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Best Super Bowl Longshot Bets 2022 & Sleeper Picks
2022 Super Bowl Sleeper Pick: Washington Commanders (+8000)
If playing one final regular season game on the road is a stayaway, any team playing their final two away from home is a death sentence. Since 2004, not one team that ended the regular season on two straight road games made the Super Bowl. Take out the Cardinals, Browns, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, Jets and Cowboys. The other key metric is having recent playoff experience. Finding a team that’s seen recent playoff time over the previous four years is huge. The only team to just show up on the map and win over the past 18 years was Tom Brady‘s Buccaneers.
That leaves 14 teams on the list, with some obvious fades like Chicago, Seattle, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Where the value jumps out the most is actually on Washington at 80-1. The Commanders have Carson Wentz at quarterback, who at least has shown signs of brilliance — albeit pre-2017 injury. There is at least a veteran presence for the Washington offense to rely on throughout the year. They have depth and versatility at the running back position and some sneaky talent at the wide receiver spot outside of Terry McLaurin. Logan Thomas was activated off the PUP list, adding to the weapons Wentz will have.
Then there’s the defense. In 2017, Wentz benefited from a top-ranked defense most of the season. Washingotn expects Chase Young to return despite missing the season opener, and the front seven could be one of the fiercest pass rushes in the league. The recent change of coaches at the defensive line showed a concerted effort to address penalties. Anything resembling the level of pass rush expected out of this unit will exponentially benefit the defensive backfield.
Of course, the Commanders sit +8000 for a reason. Wentz is brutal against the spread since his 2017 injury, and he has bounced around the league. Ron Rivera is a laughable 6-11 straight up as the Washington coach. They also won’t have Young in Week 1 and could easily lose to Doug Pederson’s Jaguars. The good news is they can hang with both Philadelphia and Dallas and could move up the division ranks while dropping the value on this ticket.
Best Super Bowl Longshot Bet 2022: Washington Commanders (+8000 BetMGM)
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2022 Super Bowl Sleeper Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+4000)
Gaining any preseason advantage means finding the right lines and creating any workable angle to boost value. Keeping with teams that have an overwhelming advantage of finishing the regular season at home and finding a team with playoff experience in at least one of the last four seasons, the Las Vegas Raiders present an exceptional betting opportunity. They finished the season with 10 wins, lost in the Wild Card and built on their offense by adding the best wide receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams. Derek Carr already had big-play receiver Hunter Renfrow, workhorse back Josh Jacobs and one of the top tight ends in Darren Waller, but the addition of Adams should make this offense one of the best in the NFL.
The defense had some big additions of their own, namely Chandler Jones and Rock Ya-Sin. The division is tough, as is the Raiders schedule, hence a 40-1 longer shot. Last year’s playoff experience will prove to be valuable in navigating the length of this season. There are no guarantees with the Chiefs or Chargers, and the Broncos aren’t fixing all of their issues by just adding Russell Wilson. The Raiders have a brutal opening stretch of games, but they aren’t outmatched in any of them ahead of time, with clear pathways to victory in each of these games.
There’s also everything that went on with this team off the field last year. While real life always impacts human beings playing sports, it’s an easy buy to see a major cloud lifted off of a team that persevered despite all that went on around them.
Best Super Bowl Longshot Bet 2022: Las Vegas Raiders (+4000 FanDuel)
