Browns-Texans Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Wild Card Saturday (January 13)

Browns-Texans Odds for Saturday

Odds via BetMGM
Browns: -130 | Texans: +110
Browns -2: -110 | Texans +2: -110
Over 44.5: -110 | Under 44.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:30 p.m. ET

Browns-Texans Player Prop Pick

David Njoku O/U 54.5 Receiving Yards

With quarterback Joe Flacco at the helm, David Njoku has finally begun to look like the player he was expected to be when the Cleveland Browns selected him in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft.

Njoku set a career-high in receiving yards this season at 882, 390 of which came in games that Flacco started. He is averaging 78 yards per game with Flacco at the helm with a median performance of 91.

With my NFL player prop pick for Saturday’s Browns-Texans game in the books, let’s turn to what OddsShopper Premium wants action on. It sees value on a C.J. Stroud player prop on Caesars due to a big-time odds disparity between that book and the rest of the market.

How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!

In this case, every other book offering Stroud at 11.5 rushing yards, including Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the over priced at -110 or worse. Meanwhile, Caesars is hanging a +106 for it. That’s worse than the true odds of -106, and we’re getting enough +EV on this bet for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $24 on it. Take advantage of the value while you can.

I’m doubling down on my David Njoku analysis with our anytime touchdown scorer pick. Njoku’s yards are up significantly under Joe Flacco, and so are his scoring plays. Njoku caught four touchdown passes from Flacco in the regular season, scoring in three of his five starts, including the Week 16 game against Houston.

Njoku leads the Browns in key red-zone volume metrics. He leads the team in targets inside the 20-yard line with 17, good for a 26.6% share, and inside the 10 with 10, good for a 34.5% share. Only three of his red-zone targets have resulted in scores, but the looks have been there.

The Texans’ defense is good in the red zone, but they allow teams to get there with relative ease. Houston ranks 20th in red-zone scoring chances allowed per game (3.2). Their steadier 12th-place ranking in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage allowed (51.9%) makes the unit seem better than it is.