The Minnesota Vikings sit at 5-1 and lead the NFC North despite not looking all that great. Fresh off a bye, the Vikings now get a home matchup against the 3-4 Arizona Cardinals. A look at the NFL odds reveals that Minnesota is a slight home favorite. Bettors looking for value should head to DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks to tail these Cardinals-Vikings prediction and picks — or check out our OddsShopper tool for other sharp plays.
NFL Odds: Cardinals-Vikings Odds
Cardinals Offense Dramatically Underperforming
The visiting Arizona Cardinals have struggled early in the year. They rank just 29th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are a below-average team in expected points added (EPA) per play. A lengthy injury report that now includes three starters on the offensive line, two of which are out, will make turning the season around all the more difficult.
Head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray were supposed to turn Arizona into an offensive juggernaut, but the unit has struggled this year. The Cardinals rank 29th in both offensive DVOA and yards per play (4.9). Although they rank 17th in yards per rush attempt (4.5), Murray's 5.2 net yards per attempt (NY/A) ranks a dismal 34th among 36 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts. Murray has completed 65.5% of his passes, which ranks 15th, but only 34.1% of them under pressure, which ranks 24th.
The Cardinals have also underperformed on defense, but not quite to the extent the offense has. The unit ranks 21st in defensive DVOA and 24th in yards allowed per play (5.8). The defensive front has fared well against the run -- Arizona ranks 12th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3) and sixth in rushing yards allowed per game (101.1). However, the secondary ranks just 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1), in part because the pass rush ranks only 22nd in pressure percentage (20.9%). The Cardinals have also struggled against tight ends -- they have allowed the most receptions per game (7.2) and receiving yards per game (77) to the position.
Vikings Playing Worse Than Their 5-1 Record Suggests
The Vikings have overperformed this year. Their 5-1 record is impressive, but they rank only 18th in DVOA and are just slightly above average in EPA per play. New head coach Kevin O'Connell's offense has looked solid but unspectacular. The teams Minnesota has beaten have combined for a 13-21 record -- and that includes the Dolphins, who the Vikings faced without Tua Tagovailoa.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has played well but hasn't elevated the team around him. He has completed 66.2% of his passes, which ranks 13th, for 5.92 NY/A, which ranks 23rd. He ranks second in on-target throw percentage (81.2%) but 34th in intended air yards per attempt (IAY/A). Cousins has also faced pressure on 24.4% of his dropbacks, which ranks eighth, but has completed only 36.7% of his passes under pressure, which ranks 22nd.
The Vikings have struggled on defense. The unit ranks 24th in defensive DVOA and 30th in yards allowed per play (6). Like Arizona, the defensive front has fared well against the run -- Minnesota ranks 13th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3) and 14th in rushing yards allowed per game (112.5). That said, the secondary has fared even worse than Arizona's. Minnesota ranks 32nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.9) despite a pass rush that ranks 20th in pressure percentage (21.4%) and eighth in sacks per game (2.8). The Vikings have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts (188.1).
Final Cardinals-Vikings Prediction & Pick
The Vikings should target Irv Smith Jr. with some frequency to exploit Arizona's defensive vulnerabilities. While Smith hasn't been great this year, he has played on at least half of Minnesota's snaps since Week 1, and he has averaged 25 routes per game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has targeted him no fewer than four times through that span.
Smith has averaged 28 receiving yards per game, slightly under his prop total for Sunday's contest. But Arizona's defense has played so terribly against tight ends that the number still feels a bit low. Otherwise unremarkable tight ends have excelled against Arizona -- Juwan Johnson just went for 32 yards and two scores last week, and Noah Fant went for 45 yards the week before. With Smith's odds of scoring a touchdown at 5-2, bettors should wager enough to profit a full unit on that market as well.
Final Cardinals-Vikings Prediction, Pick: Irv Smith Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at FanDuel
Irv Smith Anytime Touchdown (+250 for 0.4 Unit) at FanDuel
Cardinals-Vikings OddsShopper Model Prediction
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