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Chargers-Titans Pick & Prediction: Week 2’s Total Stands Out (Sept. 17)

The Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans both suffered close but disappointing losses in Week 1. They’ll look to bounce back in Week 2. Unfortunately, they could both be missing key offensive pieces — Austin Ekeler and DeAndre Hopkins are both questionable. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Chargers-Titans betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 2 bet!

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Chargers-Titans Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 2

Chargers-Titans Betting Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Chargers: -142 | Titans: +120
Chargers -3: -104 | Titans +3: -118
Over 45.5: -105 | Under 45.5: -115

Chargers-Titans Pick & Prediction

The Los Angeles Chargers head to Nashville this weekend to face the Tennessee Titans. Both of these teams lost winnable games last weekend, with the Chargers falling to the Dolphins and the Titans falling to the Saints. But despite the pair of losses, these teams are trending in quite different directions — the Chargers looked solid, at least on offense, while the Titans struggled to do much other than shut down an already-shorthanded Saints backfield. With the Chargers listed as 3-point road favorites and the total set to 45.5, I’m backing this one to go over the posted number.

The Chargers may have allowed Tua Tagovailoa to do whatever he wanted, but they managed to shut down the Dolphins’ few rushing attempts — their solid play in the trenches should force Tennessee to pass more frequently. L.A. ranks third in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush attempt after the first week, which is all the more impressive because Miami ranked a steady 13th in the metric last season and made no major changes to the backfield. The Chargers were fourth-worst in EPA allowed per rush attempt last year, but they bolstered their front seven by signing Eric Kendricks. He complements a group of starters that just arrived in L.A. last year and struggled to gel in Year 1.

The L.A. secondary was a problem in Week 1, which should help Tennessee’s passing offense bounce back. Cornerback J.C. Jackson continues to struggle after signing a monster deal with the Chargers and recorded a dismal PFF grade of 45 in Week 1. However, Ryan Tannehill looked rusty in his return to action for the Titans, leading their passing offense to a dismal 23rd-place ranking in EPA per dropback. Tannehill recorded only 4.9 NY/A and threw three interceptions. But Tannehill wasn’t nearly that bad last year, and some positive regression is likely, especially against an L.A. pass rush that generated pressure on only 11.1% of dropbacks. It’s concerning that Tannehill may not have DeAndre Hopkins, but big games from Treylon Burks or Chigoziem Okonkwo aren’t out of the question.

The Titans pose a similar problem for the Chargers. L.A. ran all over Miami in Week 1, but the Titans were the league’s best defense by yards allowed per rush attempt last year, and they currently rank fifth in EPA allowed per rush attempt. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore took what he could get on the ground against Miami in Week 1, and I expect him to pivot toward the passing game against one of the league’s better rushing defenses — especially if Austin Ekeler is out or limited. The Chargers rank sixth in seconds per play after Week 1. Moore’s Cowboys offense ranked fourth in seconds per play last year, slightly slower than the third-ranked Chargers.

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Despite all the concerning injury news, the total for this one has actually ticked up from the early week column. It was trading at 45 but now sits at 45.5 across the market. The total opened at 44.5 and was bid up to 46 or so before the Ekeler and Hopkins news created some steam to depress the total. Regardless, Pregame reports that a whopping 74% of the cash has come in on the over. Totals are half about efficiency and half about pace, and this profiles as a major pace-up spot that should produce plenty of scoring. Let’s get action on the over before the line increases if Ekeler or Hopkins get ruled in.

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Chargers-Titans NFL Week 2 Pick: Over 45.5 -105 at FanDuel

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Isaiah Sirois


Isaiah Sirois

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