Chiefs-Dolphins Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Germany (Nov. 5)

Chiefs-Dolphins Odds

Odds via bet365
Chiefs: -125 | Dolphins: +105
Chiefs -2: -110 | Dolphins +2: -110
Over 50: -110 | Under 50: -110
Time: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 9:30 p.m. ET

Chiefs-Dolphins Player Prop Pick

Jeff Wilson Jr. Prop O/U 16.5 Rushing Yards

Yeah, Jeff Wilson Jr. has only 23 rushing yards to his name this year. So what? He has been slowly getting reintegrated into the Miami offense. All 23 of those yards came last week in his second appearance, and it wasn’t like the Dolphins were just giving him garbage-time work — Wilson had tallied 19 rushing yards before the end of the first quarter, and he needed just three touches to do so. He now draws a Kansas City defensive front that hasn’t fared all that well against the run this season. The Chiefs are coughing up 87.2 rushing yards per game to running backs.

Travis Kelce O/U 7.5 Receptions

Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. The model has faith in superstar tight end Travis Kelce in what should be a competitive, high-scoring game. Kelce is averaging 7.7 receptions and 9.7 targets per game this year, so the averages point to an edge on the over. However, his median is a less impressive seven.

The Dolphins have allowed plenty of receptions to tight ends this year. They have coughed up 48 total catches to the position, fourth-most in the NFL, for 5.8 per game. Last week, the New England Patriots had three tight ends — Pharaoh Brown, Mike Gesicki and Hunter Henry — combine for a total of seven receptions.

So the model likes this play. How does it work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!

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Chiefs-Dolphins Player Prop: Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions +110 at FanDuel

Chiefs-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Sometimes the best bets are the easiest. Travis Kelce has scored only four times this season, but he leads the team in both targets inside the 20-yard line (11) and targets inside the 10-yard line (6), good for a share of 25% from both distances. Last year, he didn’t just lead the Chiefs from both distances — he led the NFL, too! Kelce racked up a monstrous 30 targets inside the 20-yard line and converted 10 of them into touchdowns. Although his red-zone efficiency is down this year, he should turn things around soon, and this soft Dolphins defense is a great target.

The Dolphins have coughed up the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to all positions this year (12), good for 0.7 per game. They have also coughed up the eighth-most total receiving touchdowns to tight ends (3). Kelce hasn’t lined up against the Dolphins since the 2020 season, but he caught a touchdown pass in that contest. Kelce also caught a touchdown pass in Kansas City’s last game in Europe, which came against the Detroit Lions back in 2016. Kelce’s touchdown odds of -120 (54.5%) at DraftKings just feel a little short, especially since Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this one at -128.

Chiefs-Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Travis Kelce -120 at DraftKings