When was the last time we saw the same four teams play each other just four days later, but with the matchups flipped? That’s exactly what we have on Christmas Day. I wanted to get this one out early in case you’re traveling so we can lock these bets in before the lines move. Here are the Christmas NFL best bets for Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans, targeting prop bets, sides and touchdowns. Don’t forget to check out our NFL player prop betting strategy guide, or explore even more free NFL expert picks and +EV NFL bets!
Christmas Day NFL Best Bets for Chiefs-Steelers, Ravens-Texans
As always, I locked these in early over on Tails in the Discord. If you’re not already part of the community, use promo code TAILS60 to get 60% off your first week or month and access every play early!
Steelers (+3) vs. Chiefs | 44.0 Total
This game is fascinating, especially with the news about George Pickens. Mike Tomlin said there’s a “real chance” Pickens will return this week, and he was a full participant in practice. I’m optimistic he’ll play, and that’s huge for the Steelers offense.
Without Pickens, the Steelers lack viable pass-catchers and struggle to function offensively. If he’s in, I like Pittsburgh to cover at home. There are still +3’s available, but I expect those to move to 2.5 soon with Pickens trending toward playing.
Tomlin as a home underdog is legendary — 21-6-3 against the spread since 2000. On the flip side, Patrick Mahomes excels at covering small spreads. The Chiefs tend to let teams hang around, though, so I expect a competitive game.
The Chiefs need just one win to lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Steelers are in a tight race with the Ravens for the AFC North title. Tomlin will have his team ready, and with Pickens likely back, give me the Steelers +3.
Christmas Best Bet for Steelers-Chiefs: Steelers +3 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best Player Prop: Xavier Worthy Over 50.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Available on bet365 and DraftKings, this number feels too low. Worthy has seen 11 targets in back-to-back games, playing over 80% of snaps in three straight weeks. Andy Reid historically brings rookies along slowly, but Worthy’s role is expanding. Factor in his six rushing attempts over the last two weeks, and I prefer the combined rushing and receiving yards over his rushing-only prop.
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Ravens (-5.5) vs. Texans | 47.0 Total
The Texans losing Tank Dell was a massive blow. They’re 9-6 and have clinched the division, but their chances of moving up in seeding are slim. Meanwhile, the Ravens are in a heated AFC North battle and need a win here.
Baltimore knows the result of the Steelers game before this one starts, but it still needs to handle its business. Lines have moved from -4.5 to -5.5, so grab the best number wherever it’s available.
Houston’s offense has sputtered without a consistent run game, and Baltimore’s defense excels at shutting down the run. The Ravens are a lean at -5.5 for now, but I much prefer the Steelers bet in the first game.
Best Player Prop: Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions
Schultz tied a season high with eight targets last game, five of which came after Dell exited. Baltimore’s defense is tough against the run, so Schultz should be a key option in the passing game.
